According to a study, when switching to electromobility, automotive suppliers are opting for a smooth transition rather than a radical change. Almost half of them expect the end of the internal combustion engine by 2039. In a survey by the industry association VDA, 20 percent named 2035 to 2039 as the period for the end of drive technology, 18 percent expect it between 2030 and 2034. That it will be that time as early as 2029 is, believe 9 percent.
More than 80 percent of the companies surveyed expect electric cars to become the standard. Overall, almost 90 percent did not expect the end of the internal combustion engine until 2030 or later, summarized the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) and the consulting firm Deloitte in the joint study.
A majority of the companies are therefore pursuing the strategy of a controlled, slow withdrawal from combustion technology while at the same time building up business with e-mobility.
Hydrogen and e-fuels as an opportunity
Most of the companies stated that they had already started the changeover. Only ten percent see no reason to switch because they are not affected due to their product portfolio. Some of the respondents assume that fuel cells (around 30 percent) or synthetic fuels (40 percent) have a chance alongside battery-electric mobility.
The results of the survey of 83 suppliers of vehicle parts and accessories belonging to the VDA thus reflect the strategy of their customers in the automotive industry, who are putting more and more battery vehicles on the roads in view of stricter climate requirements. For a few years they, too, rely on the sale of diesels and gasoline vehicles in order to finance the technological change. Europe’s largest car manufacturer Volkswagen wants to get out of the combustion engine business between 2033 and 2035. Daimler has announced that it will get the model range CO2-neutral before 2039. BMW is rejecting a specific exit date, but by 2030 every second BMW sold should be an electric vehicle.
Suppliers invest heavily in electrical development
In order to keep pace, the surveyed automotive suppliers – including many family businesses – put around a third of their research and development funds into e-mobility, even if their share of total sales is significantly lower at 15 percent. Around 85 percent use the profits from the combustion engine business to develop competencies in electromobility at the same time. Only a minority are planning more radical strategies such as mergers with others or even a quick exit from the automotive business.