Putin’s war could lead to a turning point in European security policy. The EU states want to upgrade significantly to deter Russia – and support Ukraine with additional weapons aid.
French President Emmanuel Macron at a press conference in Versailles on Friday
“Deeply concerned”? “Seriously concerned”? Or just “worried”? In Brussels, people like to use one of the many variants of the word “concerned” as soon as there is a fire anywhere in the world. «Is EU concerned?» is a satirical account on Twitter. For years he has been documenting the helpless statements that are not known to have ever caused a warring party to lay down their arms.
On February 28 alone, the account reported that it had nothing to quote. On this day, EU leaders responded to Putin’s war in Ukraine the heaviest economic and financial sanctions against Russia to date adopted. They had decided to block EU airspace for Russian planes and announced they would provide 500 million euros in military aid to Ukraine.
One billion euros for Kyiv
At a summit of member states in Versailles on Friday, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell proposed increasing support for Kyiv by another half a billion euros. The aim is to buy small arms, anti-tank missiles and ammunition, but also fuel and protective equipment. The commission said it would “finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and other equipment to a country that is under attack.” So should the EU be able to do more than just worry?
In any case, Russia’s aggression has prompted the member states to realign their security policies. The most astonishing reversal is in Germany, which has committed to increasing its defense budget from around 1.3 percent of economic output to over 2 percent. Sweden, Denmark, Romania and Latvia are also among the countries that want to upgrade significantly. Poland plans to even increase its military spending to 3 percent by 2023.
“The target of 2 percent of gross domestic product for defense spending must become an absolute minimum requirement,” said Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who delivered an impassioned speech in the European Parliament on Wednesday. It is about strengthening continental security, warned the Baltin. You are only at the beginning. According to Kallas, the EU needs a “defense plan”, not just a “deterrent attitude”.
However, it is still entirely uncertain whether the armament in the respective member states will actually lead to the countries also aligning their defense jointly – for example pooling their military capabilities and specializing in certain roles. “There is a great political dynamic at the moment, which was mainly triggered by Germany,” says security expert Daniel Fiott from the EU Institute for Security Studies. “But we do not yet know whether the member states will really break with their old certainties when it comes to developing into a real military union.”
There is a certain irony in the fact that a common defense policy only became visible with the arms aid to Ukraine. Because the armaments are to be financed, of all things, via the so-called «Peace Facility» – an instrument that was established to provide conflict management assistance, primarily to partner states of the EU in Africa. At the end of 2021, Ukraine had also received funds from the pot, but only to buy field hospitals, among other things. Arms deliveries seemed unthinkable at the time, not least because of the fundamental German opposition.
“Quantum Leap” desired
In Brussels, people have been eagerly awaiting the “Strategic Compass” for months, which is intended to give Europeans security policy orientation. Because of Russian aggression, the basic document was recently revised rewritten again. With a view to the Kremlin, it now speaks of an “increasingly hostile security environment” to which the member states would have to react with a “quantum leap” in common defense.
It is known that Borrell is planning, among other things, a new intervention force with initially 5,000 men. In addition, explicit reference is once again made to the EU’s duty of assistance and solidarity. In theory, in the event of an armed attack on the territory of a Member State, the others must step in with everything they can muster. This maxim alone results in acute pressure to act. Security expert Fiott points out that the heads of state and government also have a duty towards their home audience. Because almost everywhere in the EU, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the desire for more European defense has increased sharply.