New York (awp/afp) – The euro consolidated its position against the dollar on Monday, after hitting a two-week high, in a lackluster market that awaits statements from central bankers as well as inflation indicators on Thursday and Friday .
Around 9:00 p.m. GMT, the single currency gained 0.29% against the greenback, to 1.0584 dollars for one euro. Earlier, it had risen to $1.0615 for the first time since early June.
For Edward Moya, from Oanda, currency traders are positioning themselves in anticipation of the publication on Friday of an inflation figure in the euro zone which could reach a new record, at 8.3% in June, against 8.1% in May.
However, for Bannockburn Global Forex broker Marc Chandler, the euro’s failure to break above $1.0615 on Monday indicates that it has run into resistance and is should approach $1.05 in the near term.
The trajectory of the dollar will also depend on the PCE price index for May, expected on Thursday and closely monitored by the American central bank (Fed).
The currency market will also evolve according to declarations from central bankers, many of which are expected this week.
On Wednesday, a round table, organized on the occasion of a conference of the European Central Bank (ECB) in Portugal, will thus bring together the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, the President of the Fed, Jerome Powell, and the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey.
For Marc Chandler, the dollar was affected by the evolution of operators’ projections in terms of American monetary policy. They give a higher probability than ever to a 0.75 percentage point hike in the Fed’s rate at its next meeting, on July 26 and 27, but they also expect the rate to fall as early as 2023.
“This” possible drop, which deprives the dollar of part of its support linked to the Fed’s monetary policy, “would mean that the economy is slowing down more than is desirable”, explained Gregori Volokhine, from Meeschaert. Financial Services.
Elsewhere on the foreign exchange market, the Hungarian forint fell on Monday to its lowest level in its history against the euro, at 404 forints for one euro.
Yet Hungary has one of the highest key rates in Europe, at 5.90%, along with Poland (6%) and the Czech Republic (7%).
“Hungary is becoming more and more isolated,” said Marc Chandler, in particular because of a series of recent positions that set it apart within the European Union.
As for the Turkish lira, it experienced its strongest rebound of the year on Monday, after the announcement of a new support measure requiring certain companies to sell their foreign currencies in order to be able to benefit from bank loans.
Monday class Friday class
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9:00 p.m. GMT 9:00 p.m. GMT
EUR/USD 1.0584 1.0553
EUR/JPY 143.39 142.71
EUR/CHF 1.0120 1.0113
EUR/GBP 0.8627 0.8602
USD/JPY 135.46 135.23
USD/CHF 0.9563 0.9582
GBP/USD 1.2265 1.2268
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