The fall in the amount of real estate loans granted has increased in recent months but their amount could start rising again next year, according to figures published on Tuesday by the Observatory Credit Housing / CSA.
In the second quarter, the production of these loans collapsed by 40.8% compared to the same period of 2022. With 150 billion euros in loans expected for the whole of 2023, it should return to the level of 2015 , commented during a conference by Michel Mouillart, professor of economics and responsible for the presentation of the results of the study.
Barometer of home loan rates – July 2023
While the Banque de France often presents the market slowdown as a normalization after a good year cycle, Michel Mouillart brushed aside this interpretation, evoking a collapse and not a consolidation or a landing.
The central bank and the Observatory have been at odds for several years over the figures and the methodology. For 2022, the Observatory had thus evoked a drop of around 20% while the Banque de France spoke of a decline of 3%. Although the central bank reports all the credit data and is therefore more precise, the Observatory considers that its results suffer from a lag of several months with the reality of the situation.
A glimmer of optimism, however: it is likely that by autumn we will have reached the bottom of the pool and a slow recovery in credit production can be expected for the summer of 2024, noted Michel Mouillart.
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