While the Bitcoin price is still looking for direction, the increasing uncertainty among investors is manifesting itself in a comeback of Bitcoin dominance.
Bitcoin (BTC): direction finding continues
BTC course: 47,686 USD (previous week: 49,400 USD)
Resistance / goals: $ 48,222, $ 49,942, $ 51,307, $ 53,005, $ 54,077, $ 55,817, $ 56,979, $ 57,901, $ 59,778, $ 61,771, $ 63,189, $ 64,896, $ 66,299, $ 67,416, $ 69,000, $ 70,856, $ 76,472 $ 77,678, $ 85,563, $ 87,090, $ 89,982, $ 100,259, $ 114,961
Supports: $ 47,070, $ 46,739, $ 44,851, $ 42,563, $ 40,585, $ 39,581, $ 37,389, $ 36,643, $ 34,899, $ 30,000, $ 28,810, $ 26,170
The rate of the crypto reserve currency is still in digestion mode. So far, the bulls have managed to avert another slide towards the low at USD 42,563, but the buyers also lacked the strength to initiate a bullish countermovement. As a result, the Bitcoin price has wedged itself in the last few days of trading between EMA200 (blue) on the top and MA200 (green) on the bottom and, as expected, is trending sideways. The entire financial market is currently waiting for new statements from FED chief Jerome Powell this Wednesday evening. Together with the big decline in bets on the traditional financial market on Friday, December 17th, two price-relevant events are imminent. This uncertainty is currently reflected in the BTC rate.
Bullish scenario (Bitcoin price)
The cops are still in wait. Proper buying momentum could not be generated in the last few days of trading. At the end of the day, the BTC price failed to stabilize above the EMA200 (blue) at USD 49,942 several times. However, at least a daily closing price below the MA200 (green) at USD 46,739 could be prevented. The bulls’ goal must continue to be to push the Bitcoin rate back above USD 50,000 towards USD 51,307 as quickly as possible. A first preliminary decision can be expected here. Only when the buyer allows the BTC rate to break out above USD 51,307 does the orange zone move back into the focus of investors. To do this, however, the Fibonacci 61 retracement and the EMA20 (red) must be recaptured. If the bulls then manage to heave the BTC rate above USD 53,005 in the direction of USD 54,077 and stabilize above, the chart brightens in favor of the bulls. With that, Bitcoin would have recaptured the overriding upward trend line. Then a follow-up increase of up to USD 55,817 should be planned. If Bitcoin does not bounce south at USD 55,817 and continues to rise in value, the supertrend is already waiting at USD 56,979. Recapturing this resistance activates the next price target at USD 57,901. The Bitcoin price failed several times at this mark at the end of November. A breakout should immediately lead Bitcoin to $ 59,778.
The rocky road to new all-time highs
As discussed in the previous week’s analyzes, the USD 60,000 mark must be recaptured in order to unleash further upside potential. If the bulls manage to break through this resistance and subsequently also to overcome the 61,771 USD, it will be decided in the area between 63,189 USD and 64,896 USD whether Bitcoin will attack its all-time high again. If Bitcoin then breaks out of the high of November 15 at USD 66,299, the last potential reversal levels will come into focus at USD 67,416 and especially USD 69,000. Only a daily closing price above the previous high makes the rally likely to continue up to at least USD 70,856. A stabilization above this resistance level should cause Bitcoin to rise in the medium term towards USD 76,472 and USD 77,678. If Bitcoin subsequently also overcomes this resistance area, the chance of a march through to the medium-term conceivable target zone between USD 87,090 and USD 89,982 increases. Bitcoin should then also target the higher-level price targets at USD 100,259 (361 Fibonacci extension) and USD 114,961 (461 Fibonacci extension) in the following months. As long as the bulls fail to achieve a sustainable break, six-figure price targets are still a long way off.
Bearish scenario (Bitcoin rate)
The bears managed to cap the BTC rate below USD 50,000 this week as well. So far, however, the selling pressure generated has not been enough to push the Bitcoin price below the MA200. Only a fall back below USD 46,739 at the end of the day should push Bitcoin further to the weekly low at USD 45,759. If this support is subsequently also abandoned, a directional decision will be made between USD 44,273 and USD 44,851. If the seller succeeds in dynamically undercutting these brands, the correction extends immediately to the low in the area of USD 42,563. The probability of a widening of the correction will then increase further. If Bitcoin does not turn significantly north in this zone, a relapse to the September low at USD 40,585 is likely. As a result, the chart for the bulls clouded over again. A drop below $ 40,000 brings the trailing edge at $ 39,581 into focus.
The bulls should be on hand here in order not to end the uptrend. Abandoning this price mark at the weekly closing rate initially ends any chances of new highs in the near future. A direct sell-off to the 23rd Fibonacci retracement at USD 37,389 would be the result. If there is no massive countermovement here either, the BTC rate will subsequently fall back at least to the turquoise zone between USD 36,643 and USD 34,899. Technical interim rallies are conceivable at any time, but a first recapture of USD 42,563 would help the bulls in the future. More likely, however, is a correction expansion into the purple support zone at USD 30,000. Whether the Bitcoin rate can stabilize here also depends on the state of the classic financial market. A price slide into the light green zone between USD 26,170 and USD 27,562 cannot be ruled out.
Bitcoin dominance: BTC dominance uses year low as a springboard
The persistent weakness in the entire crypto market caused a reversal of Bitcoin dominance in the last seven days of trading. Due to the increasing uncertainty, investors increasingly switched from Altcoin investments back to Bitcoin. This tendency could already be observed in May as well as in September of this year. However, it is still too early to speak of a trend reversal. Although the Bitcoin dominance rose in the last few days of trading by around five percentage points to the north and can currently stabilize above the EMA20 (red), the resistance at 41.94 percent has not yet been regained.
BTC Dominance: Bullish Scenario
The BTC dominance succeeded at least a little break free. With the turnaround in the area of the annual lows, at least the formation of new course lows could be averted. If the dominance of the key crypto currency overcomes the zone by 41.94 percent and continues to increase, the 42.38 percent must also be recaptured in order to ensure more sustainable stabilization. There is a cross resistance consisting of EMA50 (orange) and a horizontal resistance line. If the BTC dominance can also break through this resist, investors will focus on the orange resistance zone between 42.99 percent and 43.36 percent as the target area. In addition to the upper Bollinger band, the supertrend in the daily chart runs at 43.36 percentage points. A price setback is therefore very likely.
If the Bitcoin dominance can overcome this zone in the medium term, the recovery movement will expand into the red resist zone. The MA200 (green) can currently be found here. This area could not be overcome several times recently. If the liberation strike succeeds over this resistance zone, the BTC dominance is likely to increase further and target the blue zone between 45.08 percent and 45.71 percent. With the EMA200 (blue) and the important resistance at 45.71 percent, this zone represents the maximum expected target range for the time being. Only when the Bitcoin dominance can sustainably break out of this range will there be a recovery to the October high at 47.72 Percent imaginable.
BTC Dominance: Bearish Scenario
The BTC dominance turned back north at the last moment and prevented the formation of a new annual low. Although the BTC dominance has recovered noticeably recently, a fallback towards 41.13 percent is conceivable at any time. Should the Bitcoin dominance fall below this price mark again and subsequently drop back below 40.66 percent, the area of 40 percent will again come into focus as the target area. It is not uncommon for the fourth attempt at support to lead to a breakthrough. If the BTC dominance slips below the 40.03 percent mark at the daily closing price, a retest of the annual low of September 13 at 39.56 percent should be planned.
If the Bitcoin dominance does not stabilize here, the downward trend is likely to continue and fall back by at least 37.67 percent. If the weakness continues, relapse to the psychologically important 30 percent mark is also conceivable. In order to monitor the situation and not get caught on the wrong foot, investors should closely watch the Ethereum / Bitcoin chart in the coming weeks. A sustained outperformance of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin can be used as a good indicator for the test of strength between Bitcoin and the Altcoins.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. They are only an assessment of the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.88 euros.