The trend observed at the start of 2022 is a logical continuation of the observations at the end of 2021. Banks are cautious against a background of more restrictive access to credit … but they know how to be attractive to attract the best files.
The whole of 2021 was marked by historically low mortgage rates. Month after month, the same catchphrase. And in 2022? While the conditions for granting bank loans have been tightened – no loan over 25 years and no more than 35% debt ratio, except for a handful of cases, following the decision of the High Council for Financial Stability ( HCSF) – rates start to fall again in January, according to initial estimates.
Throughout 2021, the banks that have had to face a very strong demand especially from first-time buyers [ceux qui achtent pour la premire fois, NDLR], explains Mal Bernier, director of communications and spokesperson for Meilleurtaux. In 2022, following the decision of the HCSF, we will have to be vigilant because this will undoubtedly lead to much more complicated access to the property for young buyers, who are more modest and do not have savings to complete their purchase, just like for small rental investors.
We think 2022 will be roughly the same as 2021
If the banks will be even more selective, they will not be less generous: good news for the borrowers, the time is not yet the rise of the rates, greets Ccile Roquelaure, director of studies of Empruntis. Because most banks have equivalent loan production targets 2021 which is a record year. (…) They should in 2022 maintain an aggressive rate strategy in a context of ever-fierce interbank competition, believes Julie Bachet, Managing Director of Vousfinancer. Thus the average rates offered remain stable compared to December 2021 1% over 15 years, 1.15% over 20 years and 1.40% over 25 years with significant deviations depending on the profiles, the borrowers most coveted by the banks can always finance themselves less than 1% on all the hardships: 0.55% over 15 years, 0.75% over 20 years and 0.95% over 25 years, according to Vousfinancer.
Equally optimistic, broker Le-Partenaire expects a drop in short-term average rates: We believe that 2022 will be roughly the same 2021 in terms of rates because the real estate market is on the rise with increasingly scarce properties. (…) We can note a new wave of credit re-negotiation and that the banks always want files with a minimum of contribution, savings and a controlled debt ratio 頻, analyzes Fabienne Laborde, the commercial director of the broker.
Average rates in banks at the start of January
- On 15 years: 0.88% according to Pretto; 1% to finance You; 0.81% according to Le-Partenaire; 0.75% after Direct Loan; 0.85% after Borrowed.
- On 20 years: 1.01% according to Pretto; 1.15% according to Youfinance; 0.91% according to Le-Partenaire; 0.95% after Direct Loan; 1% after Borrowed.
- On 25 years: 1.19% according to Pretto; 1.40% according to Youfinance; 1.10% according to Le-Partenaire; 1.25% after Direct Loan; 1.15% after Borrowed.
Average rates observed by brokerage networks, based on the scales provided by the banks. They do not take into account the cost of borrower insurance.
Three out of six banks have decided to maintain their rates, says broker Pretto. According to their initial estimates, the average rates are 0.88%, 1.01% and 1.19% over 15, 20 and 25 years. For the best profiles, the conditions remain below 1%, except over 25 years (0.71% over 15 years; 0.85% over 20 years and 1.01% over 25 years).
Housing finance continues to be powerful in France, explains Pierre Chapon, President of Pretto, but house prices will be a major subject of the year, marked by the presidential election but also construction prices rising sharply, and the constant pressure of the energy component on the household budget (energy bills and pressure on energy renovation).
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The year 2021 will have been marked by the end of the race towards the hypercentre of metropolitan areas and a strong attraction in terms of acquisition for the periphery of these, but also for medium-sized towns, even the rural areas, notes Alban Lacondemine, founding president of Emprunt-direct. A movement which proportionally requires less recourse to the loan, in a context however marked by a record of transactions.
Final proof that the situation of the real estate and credit market is special at the start of the year: some banks no longer send out scales every month, but prefer to apply rate reductions on a case-by-case basis, depending on income in particular, asks Sandrine Allonier, research director at Vousfinancer. Deviations of nearly 1 point, depending on the quality of the file, are observed.
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