The government reassesses its deficit forecast for 2024 to 5.1% of GDP

The government has reassessed its deficit forecast to 5.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) for 2024, instead of the 4.4% hoped for, in the new stability program unveiled by the Ministry of Finance, Wednesday April 10. According to Bercy forecasts, the public deficit should return to 2.9% in 2027.

The high figure for the 2024 deficit is the consequence of the strong slippage recorded in 2023, where it reached 5.5% instead of the expected 4.9%. It will be necessary to find another 10 billion euros this year, in addition to the 10 billion already saved, warned Bercy, which also anticipates growth of 1.4% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.

In February, to urgently restore the situation, the Minister of Economy and Finance, Bruno Le Maire, announced 10 billion euros in savings on the state budget this year: this is the maximum which could be cut by decree, without having to go through a amending finance law in Parliament.

According to information from Echoes, confirmed to Agence France-Presse, Mr. Le Maire sent a message to several parliamentarians this weekend with a view to the implementation of such an amending finance law. But this initiative greatly displeased the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, and the Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, who are not on this line.

“There will be no tax increase”

For 2025, the government has already announced 20 billion in savings across all three areas (State, Social Security, communities). But the communities seem recalcitrant and explained Tuesday to Mr. Le Maire, during a meeting in Bercy, that they had already “largely given”.

There is also still no question of increasing taxes to fill the hole, as Gabriel Attal and Bruno Le Maire repeated in unison on Tuesday during questions to the government in the National Assembly. “There will be no tax increase on the French, the trick is a bit big to make people believe the opposite”launched Mr. Attal to the boss of LR Eric Ciotti who denounced “a hidden plan” tax increases.

“We do not want to increase taxes on the French, not to “give gifts to the rich”, but because fiscal stability allows businesses to invest, create jobs, and revive French economic power”, said Mr. Le Maire. Mr. Attal, however, launched last week a “task force” parliamentarian responsible for making proposals to tax “rents”concept still to be defined.

Enough to encourage part of the opposition to denounce the government’s double discourse. “We already know that the government lied (…) for the 2024 budget, we have the feeling that he is still lying to us about the measures he intends to propose”Olivier Marleix, president of the Les Républicains group in the National Assembly, was annoyed on Wednesday, on Franceinfo.

Bruno Le Maire predicts “a powerful economic boost in 2025 and 2026”

“A budget is like a barbecue, you have one guy doing it and then everyone around giving their opinion”quipped Wednesday the former deputy minister responsible for transport, Clément Beaune, on France 2, for whom “there is no need to raise fears.”

To reduce the public deficit ratio, the government, in addition to savings and the taxation of rents, only has to hope that the denominator of the public deficit, that is to say GDP, increases sharply in the coming years. years. Bercy so far forecasts growth of 1.7% for 2025 and 2026, and 1.8% in 2027.

Last week, Bruno Le Maire predicted in front of entrepreneurs “a real powerful economic boost in 2025 and 2026”. After the disclosure of its main hypotheses on Wednesday, it will be presented to the Council of Ministers on April 17, and debated in Parliament on April 29 and 30, announced the Minister Delegate in charge of public accounts, Thomas Cazenave, and Bruno Le Maire.