The Covid-19 pandemic has not led to a massive urban exodus but a slowdown in the dynamism of the hearts of large metropolises, while their crowns and medium-sized towns are progressing, according to a study on Wednesday by France Strategy.
“The dynamics of the indicators selected show signs of slowing down in the centers of the metropolises when the other territories, in particular the crowns of the metropolises and medium-sized towns, show growth rates higher than the national average”, note the authors.
Small towns and rural communities are seeing their situation “improve”, even if the rise in real estate prices remains lower than the national average.
In the absence of recent data from the census, the study is based on the analysis of school enrollment from kindergarten to high school, as well as on the evolution of real estate prices.
If the hypothesis of a massive flow of removals from the metropolises to the countryside is invalidated, “we observe many significant movements from certain poles of metropolises to nearby or more distant cities”, note the authors.
This movement “seems to correspond to an accentuation of older processes of loosening metropolitan and rural renewal,” they add.
The analysis of the indicators highlights two groups of territories: on the one hand the rings of medium-sized cities and metropolises (excluding Paris) which display “all positive values”, and on the other hand the centers of all the metropolises which display ” all negative values.
On the employment side, we are witnessing a “clear trend reversal” in the smallest towns, which were destroying jobs before the Covid crisis.
Geographically, a map reveals that there are no “apparent regional effects” of territorial attractiveness, with positive or negative developments evenly distributed throughout France.