Emmanuel Macron has clearly announced that only parties that have already governed, together or separately – Communist Party (PC), Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV), Socialist Party (PS), Together! and Les Républicains (LR) –, could be part of a possible “coalition of action”, while La France insoumise (LFI) and the National Rally (RN), which have never governed, would be excluded. The government program will have to quickly confront the protagonists of the electoral campaign with reality. In fact, we will have to take the measure of the investments that are essential in the short term, whether in terms of ecological transition, economic resilience, restructuring of the energy system, education, health or defence. In the immediate future, we will also have to accept that we will not be able to make an aggressor – Russia – listen to reason, ready to reduce its income by 20%, if we cannot bear that ours fall by 2%. Thus, all of this will involve a significant drain on purchasing power.
It will be up to the soon-to-be reshuffled government to set the bill. And he will have to count correctly. The sudden rise in public interest rate alarms is undoubtedly excessive, but it signals a risk of panic that must be contained. France, in this context, must find the right budget balance: certainly not packing up in a hurry, as in 2011-2014. Nor, however, forget all discipline, in the “whatever it takes” way of the 2020-2022 period, which was in fact not so costly, but which left an imperishable political mark. The Prime Minister cannot decently require potential partners of the “action coalition” to subscribe to the sole logic of the presidential project, but Mr. Macron has nevertheless set certain limits to the possibility of freeing himself from it.
Compromise grounds
What then are the grounds for compromise? Ecologists will be judged on a single subject: the climate ambition and, beyond that, the ecological ambition of the program. France is seriously behind on the horizon of a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and it can only make up for this delay by accelerating the deployment of renewables and by focusing on sobriety. Nuclear power is not a subject on the 2030 horizon, but, given the composition of the coalition, there is no acceptable ecological planning for Together! and for the right which excludes the use of this energy. The energy compromise is in fact between LR, on condition that they accept renewables for today, and EELV, on condition that they accept nuclear for tomorrow.
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