Thursday, December 23, 2021
Kremlin boss can be questioned
Ukraine is Putin’s red line
By Denis Trubetskoy, Kiev
Russian President Putin invites you to his annual question and answer session. In addition to many domestic political issues, it is also about Ukraine. The 69-year-old gives no guarantees, but calls for safety guarantees. His hopes now rest on negotiations with the US in January.
The annual press conference of Russian President Vladimir Putin is one of the most important rituals of Kremlin politics. And although it lasted around four hours again, things were different this year than usual. Allegedly due to the Corona requirements, the journalists could not be accredited for the event, but were personally invited by the President’s Office. The government-critical newspaper “Novaya Gazeta” around the Nobel Peace Prize laureate and editor-in-chief Dmitry Muratov was not taken into account. In addition to the usual three negative PCR tests in a row, the journalists were also dusted with silver particles in disinfection locks at the entrance.
Otherwise, the process of Putin’s appearance, which is traditionally made into a mega-event by Russian state television, was by all means as usual. The President opened the Q&A with internal affairs: He praised the economic successes despite the pandemic and referred to the need for a corona vaccination. According to him, 59.4 percent of the population currently have a “certain” immunity, although Putin included both vaccinated and convalescents – and set the so-called collective immunity of 80 percent as a temporary goal.
However, other countries, especially Germany, would also have a hard time, said the 69-year-old. In fact, only around 44 percent of citizens in Russia are double-vaccinated, while in Germany it is around 70 percent. In contrast, the hotly debated draft law in the country on the mandatory use of QR codes for access to restaurants, shopping centers and cinemas was surprisingly not even discussed. Instead, Vladimir Putin was allowed to answer the question about a lawyer who had sued Santa Claus for not fulfilling his wishes for 23 years.
“How can this be explained?”
Basically, however, the head of state was primarily concerned with getting rid of his messages on topics that were important to him, such as Ukraine, relations with the West or the convicted opposition member Alexej Navalny. There was no major news. “You mentioned the person who was allegedly poisoned. We at least requested some material from Europe and received nothing. How can that be explained?”, Putin parried the question about Navalny. Putin justified the unprecedented pressure on independent media due to the controversial law on so-called foreign agents, from which important media such as the independent broadcaster Doschd are now suffering, by referring to an allegedly similar regulation in the USA. It is canned propaganda that has been heard by the Russian President on countless other occasions in the past.
Also with regard to the situation on the Ukrainian-Russian border and Russia’s security demands on NATO, Putin offered little new in terms of content. However, he changed his rhetoric in some places. “It came to a head in 2014. Before that, we had come to terms with the fact that some of our citizens stayed abroad after the collapse of the Soviet Union. We also worked with all Ukrainian rulers, including the pro-Western,” the Kremlin chief explained his point of view on the Ukraine conflict. “We didn’t even think about any activity in Crimea. But then there was a bloody coup d’état. People were killed and burned. And the then Ukrainian President Poroshenko tried twice to resolve the Donbass issue militarily.”
Somewhat surprising was that Putin stylized the membership of the eastern Ukrainian Donbass region in Ukraine as a merit of the Bolsheviks and the emergence of modern Ukraine as a success of Vladimir Lenin. As a result, he doubted Ukraine’s right to exist much more than usual. In addition, Putin found few diplomatic words for the current Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, who was long considered a beacon of hope for a peace policy in Donbass: “After his election victory Zelenskyi came under the influence of the radical elements, or as they say in Ukraine, the so-called Naziki. How can we build good neighborly relations on this basis? “
Serious consequences
However, as is so often the case, the real addressee of Putin’s messages on this issue is less Kiev than the West. Russia wants to negotiate so-called security guarantees as soon as possible: This includes refraining from further eastward expansion of NATO. Putin said he was positive about the recent conversation with US President Joe Biden. He looks to the first negotiations on Russia’s concrete proposals in Geneva in January with a certain hope. Nevertheless, the Russian President made it clear once again that Ukraine is the clear red line for him.
Putin gave no direct guarantees that the current deployment of troops on the border with the neighboring country would not lead to war. Moscow is not threatening anyone, but the Kremlin chief also made it clear that, from his point of view, this is happening with the deployment of missile systems by the West near the Russian border. Should this also happen in Ukraine, Russia threatens serious consequences. This also applies if Kiev decides to recapture the occupied territories in the east of the country by military means.
Overall, Putin’s message can be interpreted as follows: The diplomatic ball is currently in Washington. Russia is waiting for negotiations with the US in January. Until then, the Kremlin is unlikely to take radical steps. In addition, an invasion of Ukraine remains unlikely – the 90,000 soldiers who have gathered at the border are not enough for that.
But the changed rhetoric on the history of the embattled Donbass is remarkable. By distributing Russian passports and through economic and political integration, the Kremlin effectively annexed the occupied eastern Ukraine. With his statements, Putin could also open the door for a full annexation of the self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. That would be nothing less than a significant change in the balance of power in the Ukraine conflict.