The Taurus leak is unpleasant for the Chancellor and the Bundeswehr. But with the publication, Russia aims to do more than embarrass Olaf Scholz and senior military officials.
From a Russian perspective, the publication of an apparently wiretapped conversation between high-ranking German Air Force officers is a complete success. Internally and quite openly, they had discussed the theoretical possibilities of Ukraine using German Taurus cruise missiles. Why is the Kremlin able to have such a powerful impact with this publication?
The exact motives and calculations for the time of publication cannot be determined. But the reasons and benefits of such leaks are obvious. According to a study by scientists at Leiden University on the role of the intelligence services in the war in Ukraine, the most important goal is to influence public opinion. To achieve this, governments, for example, are exposed.
The Kremlin has succeeded in doing this with a view to Chancellor Olaf Scholz. It doesn’t matter how substantial the leak is or how authentic the recording is. What matters is what effect the leak has. One participant said that “no one really knows” why the Chancellor is blocking the Taurus cruise missiles demanded by Ukraine. That’s why there are “the most adventurous rumors”. He also had to correct false statements about Taurus to journalists. The conversation raises doubts about Scholz’s reasoning, which is why a Taurus delivery is out of the question for him. According to the leaked conversation, the Ukrainians could very well operate the cruise missiles without German soldiers on site.
This is a preparatory meeting between the officers. They coordinate before a briefing for Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, which apparently took place in February. The topic is how Ukraine could use German Taurus cruise missiles in the war against Russia, and how Germany would have to support this – if Chancellor Scholz should reconsider his rejection of supplying the weapons.
“It’s about division”
It is likely that Russia wants to make a possible U-turn by Scholz more difficult by publishing it – by using the leak to influence the Kremlin’s public opinion in Germany about the Taurus delivery. Although most Germans are in favor of supporting Ukraine, a clear majority of German citizens reject the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles. The Kremlin apparently wants to use the recording to increase fears that Germany could be drawn into the war. The recording also discusses whether the Kerch Bridge between the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland could be hit with Taurus missiles. The conversation proves the “planning of hostilities against Russia, including the destruction of civilian infrastructure,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.
For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the bridge between Russia and the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which was annexed in 2014, is a prestige project. The billion-dollar building represents a firm economic connection between Crimea and Russia as a holiday island. The bridge is also used by the Russian military, which is why from Kiev’s perspective it is a military object that can be destroyed. The Kremlin has carried out severe retaliatory strikes against Ukraine after every attack on the Crimean Bridge and has threatened to defend Crimea with all means at its disposal.
For Federal Defense Minister Pistorius, the publication of the recording is a targeted attack of disinformation. “It’s about division. It’s about undermining our unity,” he said. “It is intended to reinforce the fairy tale, the legend, that we are working on a war against Russia, which is completely absurd.”