S.It all happened in quick succession in the Netherlands at the weekend. On Friday evening, the public television broadcaster NOS reported a new, radical recommendation from the panel of experts advising the government on the Corona crisis: shut down everything, except for daily business. A government press conference was announced on Saturday afternoon. As a result, queues formed in front of shops in many inner cities because people wanted to buy Christmas presents quickly.
At 7 p.m., a serious Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, announced to his compatriots that because of the highly contagious Omicron variant it was “terrible” but “necessary” to put the country into lockdown again, starting at 5 a.m. on Sunday. The Netherlands was the first country in Europe to make such a drastic decision.
“We have to intervene now”
“We fell off our chairs the first time we heard of the great concern of the Outbreak Management Team,” said Rutte. “Omikron is spreading even faster than we feared, so we have to intervene now.” The mutant was first detected in the country on November 19, and the Expert Council now expects it to be dominant between Christmas and New Year. So far, it has doubled its share of infections every two to three days. In Amsterdam, where the infection rate is highest, it accounted for a quarter of all new infections on Friday; on Sunday or Monday it will therefore be half.
It is quite possible that other European countries will soon have to take similarly drastic measures. According to the latest findings from South Africa, the probability of hospitalization was 19 percent higher with the previously dominant Delta variant, but Omikron still leads to many more admissions and deaths due to its rapid spread.
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According to the latest calculation by the EU Infection Protection Agency, the number of deaths would quadruple even assuming the best assumption that Omikron is only 20 percent more contagious than Delta and the vaccines lose 30 percent of their effectiveness. In the more realistic case that vaccination protection is halved and the mutant is thirty percent more contagious, the number of deaths can increase by a factor of twenty – if contacts are not drastically restricted.
However, there are two peculiarities in the Netherlands that make the country particularly vulnerable. Firstly, it has only a small number of intensive care beds compared to other EU countries, and these are already on the verge of being overloaded. Of the 850 beds reserved for ventilated patients, 618 were occupied on Saturday. According to the Association of Intensive Care Physicians, the beds could be increased to a maximum of 1250.
Only nine percent boosted
In an OECD comparison, the Netherlands, with 6.7 intensive care places per 100,000 inhabitants, is in the lower third of the EU; in Germany it is four times more (28.9). In part, this is due to the fact that many more people choose “self-determined dying” than elsewhere and therefore less intensive care medicine is necessary. In part, however, it is also the result of radical privatization; under cost pressure, it is simply not efficient to maintain excess capacity.
Second, the Netherlands is at the bottom of the EU when it comes to boosting. So far, only nine percent of the population have received the refresher – Austria is at the top with 36 percent, Germany has 30 percent. The National Health Council, comparable to the Standing Vaccination Commission in Germany, did not recommend refreshing the protection of older people until the beginning of November; this started on November 18th in nursing homes.
At this point, most of the neighboring countries had already completed the first stage. Anyone under the age of sixty can only make an appointment next week. Health Minister Hugo de Jonge admitted on Saturday evening that the lockdown was only intended to “buy time” to catch up on the booster campaign, which is now to be accelerated and completed by the end of January. These refreshments should at least guarantee protection against the course of serious illness.
For many Dutch people it is a déjà vu – their country has been lagging behind the other EU countries since the beginning of the pandemic. It was the last to mandate protective masks in indoor public places and the last to start vaccinating earlier this year. De Jonge had to take some criticism for this, but the Christian Democrat is still in office and should also belong to the next cabinet as a minister. Rutte denied on Saturday that the lockdown was the direct result of the late booster start. “Other countries that started boosting significantly earlier are now also in trouble,” said the right-wing liberal head of government. He referred to the United Kingdom and Denmark.
There were initially no protests against the lockdown – perhaps because the decision came as a surprise. In November demonstrations in Rotterdam and many other cities had turned into massive violence. This was triggered by minor restrictions and the planned introduction of a 2G rule. That was then postponed because of Omikron. Now everything has to close anyway, from the pub to the fitness club.