Greenpeace has delivered the results of a study on how often we will still be able to fly in the coming decades, to contain global warming. The French should in theory greatly restrict their air travel.
The over-emission of greenhouse gases due to the intensive use of fossil fuels is disrupting the climate, requiring an urgent reduction in emissions that is now known to all. Aviation, although allowing extensive mobility, contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. And despite the rapid growth of this sector, its access remains limited to a small part of the world’s population.
Faced with this challenge, Greenpeace France commissioned the BL Evolution firm to evaluate the sustainable frequency of long-haul flights by 2050 to respect the Paris Agreement, thus underlining the need to rethink the place of aviation in a low emissions world. As you will see, some will have to adopt a dry flight regime if they want to contribute to limiting global warming by 1.5°C in the best case scenario.
Today, the French still take planes too often, according to Greenpeace
Today, a French person boards a long-haul round trip flight every five years on average. According to Greenpeace, this is far too much, especially since the share of long-haul emissions accounts for 61% of the sector’s total emissions, and is ” expected to increase in the years to come », Predicts the NGO.
Remember that a flight is considered “long-haul” when its duration is more than 4h30. Generally, this concerns journeys that take us outside Europe or outside the Mediterranean basin.
Based on the emissions outlook, the carbon budget and the goal of moving towards net zero by 2050, Greenpeace and BL Evolution have calculated the total number of flights per person from 1er January 2023 until 1er January 2050.
Only four long-haul flights per French person by 2050
If we take into account the scenario making it possible to limit the increase in temperatures to as close as 1.5°C, a French person would have to limit themselves to 4 long-haul flights until 2050, i.e. two long-distance round trips. letters (ARLC). This figure increases to around ten long-haul flights (therefore 5 ARLC) in a slightly more pessimistic scenario, which would limit the increase in temperatures below 2°C.
Here we are talking about data resulting from what Greenpeace calls a “ progressive convergence of the inegalitarian option towards the egalitarian option “, in other words the number of thefts per French person as a whole. If every human being living on Earth had the opportunity to fly, we would fall to less than one long-haul round trip flight by 2050 (0.5) for the scenario limiting the increase to 1.5° vs.
Greenpeace also took into account the reflections of the Ecological Transition Agency (ADEME), which does not forget the scenario of technological disruption, which could offer a gain in energy efficiency that the NGO estimates, in its opinion. turn, at around 3% per year. Technical progress, fuel replacements and fleet renewals could limit the increase in aviation emissions.
Source : Greenpeace
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