After a peak expected in the last quarter of 2021, the global economic recovery will slow down. According to forecasts by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published on Wednesday 1er In December, the growth of the global gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise from 5.6% in 2021 to 4.5% in 2022, then to 3.25% in 2023. The world economy is not expected to catch up before 2023 to its level. before the Covid-19 pandemic, with a much faster recovery in advanced economies than in emerging and poor countries.
Above all, this recovery is more uncertain than ever because it is threatened by serious global health and economic imbalances, warns the OECD. First in terms of vaccination: 147 doses were administered on average per 100 inhabitants in rich countries, against 8 in poor countries, which increases the risk of the appearance of new strains potentially more contagious and resistant to vaccines, such as this is the case with the recently discovered Omicron variant. With incomplete data on its lethality and contagiousness, it is too early to measure the consequences.
The OECD recalls that “The first of the political priorities” is of “To ensure that vaccines are produced and deployed as quickly as possible around the world”. In other words, the pandemic will not be defeated anywhere if it does not disappear everywhere. A message that is difficult to be heard by politicians, according to Laurence Boone, chief economist of the organization: “The G20 countries have spent 10 trillion dollars (8 800 billion euros) to support their economy during the pandemic, and poor countries need $ 50 billion to immunize their populations. Why are we not making more efforts to save ourselves such a high human and economic cost? “
Bottlenecks
The economic trajectories of the countries also diverge. “The loss of growth was proportionately larger for emerging economies (…) and especially for low-income developing countries ”, notes the OECD, which underlines their fragility due to high debt in foreign currencies, which hinders their fiscal room for maneuver and could slow down their recovery.
Imbalances are finally widening in each economy, with consumption that favors manufactured products rather than services, while moving towards electronic commerce. This is shown by the growth gap between trade in goods and services, published Tuesday, November 30 by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The first jumped 22% in the third quarter of 2021, on an annual basis, while the second grew by 6%. Merchandise trade, valued at $ 5.6 trillion in the third quarter of 2021, reached an all-time high.
You have 50.12% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.