Inflation in the country and a strengthened opposition plunged the Turkish president into the greatest crisis of his recent tenure. Erdogan promptly relies on nationalistic tones against the West again. But this time it shouldn’t help him much.
Just gone well. In the end, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed to carry out his threat against the West. Contrary to what was initially announced, the ambassadors of ten western nations did not have to leave the country.
It is still unclear whether it was a short-circuit reaction from the president or whether Erdogan really wanted a full confrontation with the West when he declared the diplomats to be “unwelcome people” last weekend. It is likely that a face-saving way out was sought behind the scenes – especially for Turkey. Because the times when the head of state scored big domestically by campaigning against the West are over. The economic and social problems in the country are too deep.
“Where do you think you are here?” Erdogan called out to the diplomats a week ago during a powerful speech in the city of Eskisehir. And drawn out: “This is Turkey, Turkey!” The trigger was a show of solidarity by the ambassadors with the Turkish patron of culture Osman Kavala, who had been imprisoned for four years. When the ambassadors opted for de-escalation a little later and committed themselves to the Vienna Convention, which stipulates not to interfere in the internal affairs of the host country, Erdogan interpreted this as a victory. The ambassadors had “backed out” and “will be more cautious in the future,” he said earlier this week.
The old maneuvers
The president’s advance was drastic, but above all a well-known maneuver. Whenever Erdogan came under pressure in the past, the Islamic conservative politician accused the West of looking down on Turkey as a third world country. His goal has always been to trigger nationalistic fireworks in the population, for example in April 2017 when Erdogan berated Germany and the Netherlands with Nazi comparisons. This was preceded by a dispute over election campaign appearances by Turkish politicians in the EU. The dispute paid off for Erdogan: he won the controversial constitutional referendum and introduced the presidential system tailored to his needs.
And today? If you talk to hairdressers, bar owners and taxi drivers in Istanbul, you hardly get the impression that the president can use such an old trick to win over the majority of the population so easily to his side again. In addition, a good one and a half years before the next presidential and parliamentary elections, Turkey is more dependent on foreign countries than it has been for a long time. States such as the USA, Germany and the Netherlands are particularly important financial and trading partners; that Erdogan threatened precisely those countries with the expulsion of their ambassadors seems misleading.
Bad polls put pressure on presidents
Rather, the president’s move should have been a firm reaction to the fact that many Turks are having serious doubts as to whether the president can still get the country back on track. The fact that at the same time a broad opposition alliance sits on his neck, which has never existed before in Turkey, makes it even more difficult for Erdogan. And so quite a few observers are already looking to early elections.
Above all, it is the poor poll numbers that make Erdogan look weak. The electoral alliance between the ruling party AKP and the ultra-nationalist MHP only comes to around 40 percent. According to the latest survey by the Metropoll research institute, at least as many votes were cast in favor of an opposition alliance led by the secular center-left party CHP. In addition, there are the votes of the pro-Kurdish and Erdogan critical HDP, which recently won a good 10 percent in elections.
The CHP and the conservative-nationalist Iyi party in particular skillfully use public appearances to dovetail the president with sensitive issues such as rising rents, expensive food and violence against women. In doing so, they do not shy away from raising the mood against the millions of refugees in the country.
Opinion polls in Turkey should be viewed with caution, but they make it clear that Erdogan is as far removed from the absolute majority as it has been in years. This is dangerous for the president, who is used to success, because the opposition alliance with the HDP could agree on a common candidate and send it into the race against Erdogan. The CHP shooting star Ekrem Imamoglu had already become mayor of Istanbul in the 2019 local elections.
Turkish lira is sagging – imports are becoming more expensive
The poll results, which are bad for Erdogan, should not hide the fact that he continues to rule single-handedly and control an estimated 90 percent of the media. But the numbers are not unfounded. The consequences of the devastating inflation have long since reached the poor and conservative Turks, Erdogan’s core electorate. Since the beginning of the year, the currency has fallen by 24 percent against the dollar. One euro is currently being exchanged for more than 11 lira. For comparison: In October 2017 the rate was still below 4.50 lira. This is a burden for a country that is dependent on imports.
The economy grew by a strong 21.7 percent in the second quarter of the year, but the microeconomic consequences are visible everywhere. In September consumer prices rose by 19.58 percent compared to the previous month, according to official figures. Gasoline, meat, tomatoes – but also onions, eggplants, electricity, gas, animal feed, fertilizer, machine parts, electrical appliances: almost everything has risen disproportionately in price in Turkey. Food prices rose particularly sharply by around 29 percent.
“There are no cheap foods in Turkey”
That is much, too much, says Ali Carkoglu during a conversation in Istanbul. The election researcher and professor at the private Istanbul Koc University emphasizes that Turkey has been in a problematic economic situation since the end of 2015. Now the population is also feeling it strongly. “I was recently in the city of Canakkale. A street vendor actually wanted nine lira for a kilogram of tomatoes, the same amount as here in the metropolis of Istanbul. No matter where, there are currently no cheap groceries in Turkey.” The election researcher emphasizes that it is these prices that will help determine the outcome of the next elections.
As for the inflation of the lira, Erdogan’s influence on the Turkish central bank is unlikely to have helped. The head of state has put pressure on the central bank several times over the past few years and pushed through to lower key interest rates – although experts say exactly the opposite should be done. The fact that the president has already dismissed three governors who dared to base the central bank’s key interest rate policy more on general economic theory than on that of the president did not go down well with foreign investors.
Observers believe the government needs a standout event to increase its popularity and turn the polls. Domestically, Erdogan could have benefited briefly from the threat against the ambassadors. In the long term, however, the president does not have the longer lever: the more tension Turkey has with other countries, the more the lira seems to plummet. New military interventions abroad, an option that Erdogan always keeps open, are unlikely to help.
Tensions with Washington in particular have recently turned out to be costly for the Turkish government. After a dispute with ex-President Donald Trump, the national currency crashed once, and after buying Russian missile defense systems, Washington excluded Ankara from the development program for a new generation of US fighter jets. The incumbent US President Joe Biden thinks little of Erdogan, as indicated by his dealings with him so far. It’s unlikely that if there is a dispute, Biden will be the first to give in.
Generation Z is not a fan of the AKP
In addition to inflation, election researcher Carkoglu sees another issue that is responsible for the government’s low polls: unemployment. 23 percent of the country’s under-25s are officially unemployed. If you add those who have given up hope of work and are no longer looking, the situation is even worse.
“I assume that 40 to 50 percent of Turks under the age of 25 are de facto unemployed,” says Carkoglu. Because Turkey has a particularly young population, the researcher assigns this factor a high level of significance. “In the next election, 4.5 to 5 million people will be able to vote for the first time. That is almost ten percent of the entire electorate. At the moment there is little evidence that this generation will give the majority of its votes to the AKP. The party offers this generation nothing.” Carkoglu expects early elections in spring or winter 2022.
Erdogan counters criticism with a basketball game on Youtube
Recently there were also discussions about the health of the 67-year-old president. Erdogan often appeared tired when he appeared in public. In the summer he even nodded off when he was speaking on television. Still, his will to stay in power is undoubtedly unbroken.
At the beginning of the month it became clear that the political machinery behind the AKP is still oiled. Erdogan countered discussions about his health with an unusual YouTube video. The president can be seen playing basketball on a sports field. “I try to exercise three days a week,” said the president. His team won the match 50:24. Top scorer with 27 points: Erdogan.