According to a study conducted by Bloomberg, the price of batteries has risen sharply in recent months. An increase which should have repercussions on that of electric cars. But that was without counting on future affordable electric cars expected in the coming months.
Until a few years ago, electric cars were unaffordable for most motorists and considered a luxury. And for good reason, prices were still very high. Today, if parity with thermal models has not yet been reached, the offer is increasingly vast and above all affordable. Above all, owning an electric car costs less than a thermal car. New, cheaper cars are emerging, especially from China, while the cost of producing batteries has dropped dramatically.
A slight increase
Indeed, as detailed in a study by BloombergNEF, the average cost of lithium batteries would have fallen by 6% between 2020 and 2021, from $140 per kWh to $132. And we start from afar, while the kWh cost 1,200 dollars in 2010. However, this fall is slowing down.
Worse still, prices would even be going up. In any case, this is revealed by another report also published by BloombergNEF. According to specialists, thehe cost of lithium batteries would indeed have increased by 7% in 2022 compared to 2021. It is then necessary to count 151 dollars on average per kWh at present.
A rise that we logically owe to the soaring commodity prices, such as lithium of course, but also nickel. And this increase is explained by a scarcity of these metals, while the demand increases considerably. Indeed, according to the European Energy Agency (AEI), sales of electric and hybrid cars tripled between 2018 and 2021, reaching 6.6 million units.
A situation that worries specialists, while some, like Carlos Tavares, boss of Stellantis, also fear that it will lead to dependence on China. Because for the time being, most of the production is still done there, while 20% of the cars sold in Europe are assembled there.
China still the leader
And for good reason, according to Bloomberg, it is in the Middle Kingdom that the cost of batteries is the lowest, with only 127 dollars per kWh. In the United States and Europe, it costs 24% and 33% more, respectively. Thus, it is easier to understand why many manufacturers such as Tesla, BMW, Renault or more recently Cupra decide to relocate their production to China.
Especially since, according to specialists, prices are expected to remain very high at least until next year. However, they are counting on a fall from 2026, a date pushed back by two years compared to the first estimates. Nevertheless, some experts fear that the price of cars will increase considerably by then, due to the rise in raw materials.
As Bloomberg explains, parity between thermal and electric would however already be reached for some models, especially the most high-end, but only in China. In Europe, very affordable models are now on the market, coming in particular from the Middle Empire like the MG4 which has something to overshadow the Renault Mégane E-Tech. We also think of the Dacia Spring, which however saw its price increase by 1,000 euros a few weeks ago.
In the coming years, we also expect the launch of other more affordable electric cars, such as the Renault 5 (R5) or a small model from Fiat. At the same time, it is not certain that the price of thermal cars will decrease, since the manufacturers are facing price increases on the raw materials constituting them as well, and on increasingly drastic anti-pollution regulations.
But the massive invasion of accessible cars from China is not a solution either. Because this, which greatly worries specialists, risks causing massive destruction of jobs on the Old Continent, not to mention pollution. As we know, the production of batteries in Asia is much less clean than that carried out in Europe.
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