The high inflation confirmed in December (2.8% over one year) leaves little choice. The Livret A rate should, in all likelihood, drop from 0.50% to 0.80% net as of February 1.
On Friday January 14, 8.45 a.m., we’ll know. It is on this date that INSEE (1) has planned to lift the embargo on the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of December 2021. Only this figure is missing to calculate average inflation over the second half of 2021 and, by extension, the future Livret A rate.
In the meantime, INSEE provided, this morning, a sizeable index: the provisional figure for this CPI. As in November, the price increase was 2.8% over one year. If this figure were confirmed (and it is very often the case), average inflation for the second half of 2021 would thus rise to 2.2%. By applying the official calculation formula, which also integrates the average level of the aster (-0.565% currently), the Livret A would stand out, 0.80%, rate applicable from 1 February next. Or an increase of 0.30 point.
Pivotal value of regulated savings, the Livret A would entail LDDS (0.50% 0.80%), the Livret Bleu du Crdit Mutuel (0.50% 0.80%) and the CEL (0.25% 0.50%). the THE P, for its part, is not only indexed to the Livret A, but also to half-yearly inflation. To align with the latter, it should benefit from a big boost, by the way by 1% 2.20%!
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The increases expected on February 1, 2022
- A booklet: 0.50% 0.80% (net of any tax)
- Sustainable and solidarity development booklet (LDDS): 0.50% 0.80% (net)
- Livret Bleu du Crdit Mutuel: 0.50% 0.80% (net)
- People’s savings account (LEP): by 1% 2.20% (net)
- Home savings account (CEL): 0.25% 0.50% (gross, interest subject to social contributions but also income tax on CELs opened since 2018)
Bercy under pressure
The conditional remains in place. The inflation figure for December must first be made final. And then that the government agrees to revalue the rate on the basis of the calculation formula.
In the matter, Bercy does in fact more or less what he wants. The Minister of the Economy, in consultation with the Governor of the Banque de France, may for example decide to contain or even cancel any change in the Livret A rate, if he considers that it is not opportune.
However, we doubt that this is the case this time: faced with the anxiety of the French in the face of rising prices and a few months of a presidential election, the executive has little choice but to agree to give a boost to popular savings.
Livret A rate: 3 scenarios for an increase
(1) National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies