One of Putin’s war targets in Ukraine is within reach. In Western Europe, therefore, the debates about the necessary concessions from Kiev for a ceasefire have started again. Resolute weapons aid would be more effective.
The front in the Donbass has advanced further to the west after Russia has gained significant territory.
“Francis Fukuyama: Russia will lose this war.” Such headlines are particularly popular with readers of the NZZ and probably also with readers of many other western media. The wish that this cruel war of aggression in Ukraine will be punished by a deserved defeat of the aggressor is understandable. Unfortunately, the reality on the battlefields in Donbass is different.
The loss of Luhansk Oblast is imminent
After a change of strategy a month ago, the Russian offensive, which was focused on the territory of the Donbass in the south-east of the country, has been slower than originally expected in recent weeks, but has made significant progress. Incessant shelling by Russian artillery and airstrikes has weakened Ukraine’s defenses. The case was reported in the small town of Liman south of Isium on Friday. The small town of Severodonetsk on the banks of the Donets River, which has been heavily shelled for weeks, is almost surrounded; Street fights are already being reported from the suburbs. A forced withdrawal of Ukrainian troops west across the Donets is becoming increasingly likely. Control of the entire Luhansk Oblast by Russia seems within reach – which would mean that one of the declared war goals would be achieved.
Even the Ukrainian government admits that the defenders have come under pressure. The Ministry of Defense acknowledged the Russians’ “temporary successes” on Thursday. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said the fighting was at maximum intensity and the intensity is likely to increase.
The government in Washington has recognized the seriousness of the situation. She has put together aid packages totaling $40 billion for Ukraine, half of which is for arms aid. The war equipment supplied includes 90 state-of-the-art M-777 howitzers from American stocks. As it became known on Friday, modern American multiple rocket launchers could soon be added. With these heavy weapons comes the hope that Ukrainian troops could push back superior Russian firepower.
The US acts – Europe debates
But the US is pretty much alone in this determination. On the European side, Ukraine continues to be supported with many big words. Most Western European countries have now committed themselves to the principle that heavy weapon systems such as tanks or artillery can also be delivered to Ukraine. But how much steel and lead actually crosses the border has become fairly quiet in recent days.
The German government is hiding behind the incomprehensible assertion that NATO decided not to deliver heavy western weapons – as if the USA were not part of NATO. Italian Prime Minister Draghi, meanwhile, prefers to talk about a quick ceasefire in Ukraine rather than arms deliveries. And in numerous capitals, the debate is gaining momentum again that Russia must be retained as a partner in the long term and should not be pushed too far into a corner.
These discussions fail to recognize what is at stake strategically for Europe in the Donbass.
There can be no talk of real peace negotiations at the moment. The talks are blocked, the Russian government spokesman Dimitri Peskov confirmed again on Friday. This will remain the case as long as neither side feels compelled to make painful concessions. That point in time is still far away. The Russians continue to struggle with a lack of motivated personnel. However, with their change of strategy, which primarily focuses on long-distance artillery battles, they were able to significantly reduce their losses in the first phase of the war. Your powers are far from exhausted.
The Ukrainians, on the other hand, have gotten on the defensive in the Donbass and are certainly suffering higher losses than is officially known. In addition, in many places there is a lack of strength for counter-offensives. But the only slow advance of the Russians shows that determination and resilience are unbroken.
Only a strong Ukraine can enforce peace
This makes it clear that the brutal fighting in the Donbass is far from over. As long as Russia has any hope of gaining ground and getting closer to its war goals, the country is unlikely to agree to serious ceasefire negotiations. Conversely, the government in Kyiv will not be able to accept the surrender of lost territory as long as there is hope of recapturing occupied areas. Only the threat of defeat or unacceptable war costs for at least one side should make an armistice possible.
That is why Ukraine needs maximum support from its Western allies in order to use military strength to force Russia’s consent to serious negotiations as soon as possible. If this does not happen, the alternative for Ukraine and the West is dreadful: the longer the fighting lasts and the further the Russians advance, the more painful and difficult it will be to reach a lasting peace in Kyiv. All the more people will fall under the control of an undignified Russian occupation regime. The Russian offensive will claim all the more deaths and destruction. And it is all the more likely that Russia will feel encouraged to launch a new campaign against Western Europe in the future. Effective resistance is in the West’s own interest. It must be done now.