The curve is flattening after sustained increases, but investors have no reason to worry yet. Dividends paid out by the world’s largest companies fell 0.9% in the July-September period to $421.9 billion (€387.5 billion), according to the asset management company’s latest report. American Janus Henderson, published Wednesday November 15.
Once exceptional dividends are subtracted and the impact of the appreciation of the dollar is neutralized, dividends are up symbolically by 0.3%. A stabilization, therefore, after increases of 12% in January-March and 4.9% in April, but which does not necessarily reflect a questioning of the generosity of listed companies towards their shareholders.
Indeed, “nearly nine out of ten companies increased or maintained their dividend », notes Charles-Henri Herrmann, director of development France & Benelux at Janus Henderson. The rare reductions, on the other hand, were very significant, with a marked effect on the overall development.
The banking sector, among the “big payers”
The Brazilian oil giant Petrobras thus paid $9.6 billion less than in the third quarter of 2022 and the mining group BHP, the world’s leading dividend distributor in 2021 and 2022, reduced its distributions by 55% over one year, at $4.1 billion. If we exclude these two extreme cases, global dividends show an increase of 5.3%.
Beyond BHP, the decline in world raw material prices has prompted many ore producers to be more cautious: Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals, very generous since 2021, have also passed on this drop. In total, the sector’s dividends fell by almost 40% year-on-year.
On the other hand, the banks have shared with their shareholders the fruits of their return to better fortunes: the rise in interest rates, which allows them to rebuild their margins, has enabled them to distribute some six billion dollars more in the third quarter than in the same period of 2022. “The sector is now one of the largest dividend payers and this will continue”says Mr. Herrmann.
On these bases, Janus Henderson has only very slightly revised its forecasts for the whole year: dividends should amount to 1,630 billion dollars, or 10 billion less than expected there at three months. They would thus show an increase of 4.4% compared to 2022. And several countries, including the United States, China and France, should record new records in this area.