Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa clearly won the legislative elections in Portugal on Sunday January 30, an election marked by a breakthrough of the far right and which does not completely rule out the specter of political instability.
Because Mr. Costa – let go in October 2021 by his former allies of the radical left, which caused the calling of these elections –, does not seem to have managed to win an absolute majority in Parliament, as in the last legislative elections of 2019. The former mayor of Lisbon, 60 years old and in power since 2015, will therefore have no choice but to continue to govern in a minority by seeking support within the Assembly of the Republic.
According to projections published at the exit of the polls by three national television stations, the Socialist Party (PS) came out on top with 37% to 42.5% of the vote and from 100 to 118 deputies out of a total of 230. It could therefore improve its 2019 score (36.3% and 108 elected). The official results will be known later in the evening.
“There is clearly a victory and a strengthening of the PS (…). This means that the Portuguese want [ce parti] rules and want tranquility in their lives”, Antonio Costa told public television RTP. Overall, Parliament seems set to remain on the left, with the Left Bloc totaling three to ten seats and the Communist-Green coalition between three and eight.
“People have understood our message”, according to the far right
While he hoped to be able to create a surprise, the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD, right) of Rui Rio, comes in second position with 27% to 35% of the vote, and 75 to 95 elected.
This election was also marked by a breakthrough of the far-right party Chega (Enough), which, with six to fourteen elected and up to 8.5% of the vote, could be propelled to the rank of third force in the country, while that there was only one deputy in the outgoing Parliament.
Portugal had long been an exception in Europe because since the end of the dictatorship in 1974 and until the last ballot in 2019, this country of ten million inhabitants had no far-right party represented in Parliament. “People understood our message”rejoiced the number one of Chega, André Ventura, who judged “bad for the country that Antonio Costa continues to be prime minister”.
Possible negotiations to adopt the budget
Having come to power seven years ago thanks to a historic alliance forged with the radical left (Left Bloc and communists), Antonio Costa never ceases to pride himself on having “turned the page on austerity” budget implemented by the right, under the supervision of the “troika” – European Central Bank-International Monetary Fund-European Union (EU) – in the midst of the debt crisis.
But, when his minority government also had “turning the page on the pandemic” thanks to record vaccination coverage and the post-Covid-19 European recovery plan, he was stopped in his tracks by his former allies, who rejected his draft budget for 2022 and thus caused the calling of this early election.
The scenario of a new union of the left, as broad as that of 2015, seems unlikely insofar as Mr. Costa had castigated the“irresponsibility” ex-partners to provoke a political crisis as Portugal has to implement its EU-funded €16 billion investment plan.
Before his victory, Antonio Costa had therefore confided that he preferred to continue to govern alone, by negotiating the support of Parliament before each vote or by joining forces with small parties. Finally, the Prime Minister could also turn to his rival Rui Rio and negotiate with him the abstention of the PSD during the vote on the budget in order to be able to have it adopted as soon as possible.