This is the first step on a very long road. On the occasion of the European summit which opened on Thursday 23 June, the leaders of the European Union (EU) are preparing to grant Ukraine the status of candidate to the EU. This status, which makes it possible to officially open negotiations on membership, constitutes the very beginning of a process which could take several decades.
“If the political pressure, induced by the war in Ukraine, made it possible to validate in record time the candidature of Ukraine, its adhesion will not be immediate”warns Georgina Wright, director of the Europe program within the Institut Montaigne think-tank. “We have to make sure that the two authorities can take on this project”she underlines, evoking, on the one hand “Ukraine’s ability to comply with European rules”the other “that of the EU to absorb a new country, while maintaining its institutional balance. »
From the application to membership in the European Union, through the validation of the status of candidate, The world comes back to this long road that awaits Ukraine before becoming, or not, a Member State of the European Union.
Candidate status validated in record time
On February 28, four days after the Russian invasion of his territory, the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, asked to benefit from a “special procedure” to enable his country to join the European Union. A few weeks later, during the month of March, the president officially submits his application for membership.
In reality, there is no accelerated procedure for EU membership. Such an application involves a long process which starts with acceptance of the application by the Commission, the European Parliament, the Council (the Member States) and an official validation by the European Council (the Heads of State and Government) at the unanimity.
By way of comparison, Serbia, which submitted its application in 2009, had to wait until 2012 before it was granted candidate status and 2013 before negotiations were launched. Like several Balkan countries, Serbia is still waiting today at the gates of the EU. Like those of Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro, its membership has still not been validated and negotiations are continuing. The most emblematic example, Turkey made its request in 1987, before being declared a candidate in 1999 and starting negotiations in 2005, which are currently at a standstill.
Towards the granting of candidate status… under conditions
Three months after submitting the application, the European Commission was the first body to validate, on June 17, the granting of EU candidate status to Ukraine. “Ukrainians are ready to die to defend their European aspirations. We want them to live the European dream with us”justified the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, dressed in a yellow jacket and a blue blouse in the colors of the Ukrainian flag.
“Ukraine has already adopted about 70% of European rules, norms and standards”first praised Mrs. von der Leyen, evoking pell-mell “a very solid presidential and parliamentary democracy”, “a public administration that works very well and that made it possible for the country to function during this war”the ” hit “ of the reform of decentralization and “a fully functioning market economy”. As early as 2014, Ukraine signed an association agreement with the EU, including a free trade agreement. Considered a prerequisite for membership, this text, which entered into force on 1er September 2017, aimed to reform Ukrainian institutions and the economy, to bring them into line with European Union standards.
“Much has been achieved, but of course there is still important work to be done”however tempered Ursula von der Leyen, referring to progress to be made on “the rule of law, the oligarchs, the fight against corruption and fundamental rights”. A warning that aims to avoid a headache for European diplomats. Marked by too rapid accessions, such as those of Bulgaria and Romania, now plagued by corruption, Brussels wants to avoid problematic country profiles. “This candidate status is reversible”specified to World a senior official in early June. If this status should indeed be granted to Kyiv, the European Council can however decide to withdraw it.
The reforms awaiting Ukraine
Once Ukraine’s candidacy has been validated by the Council, the European Commission will have to establish with kyiv a strategy for the country’s pre-accession to the EU. “This stage of the process involves the establishment of a support and financial aid program allowing the candidate to carry out the administrative, political and economic reforms necessary to integrate the European legislative corpus”explains Georgina Wright of the Institut Montaigne.
What projects will Ukraine have to tackle? In addition to committing to respect Articles 49 and 2 of the Treaty on European Unionthe country must also apply the Lisbon Treaty and the Copenhagen criteria, which are based on the imperatives of political and economic stability. “Added to this is the criterion of the acquis communautaire, which means that the candidate state must be able to integrate all the existing European standards into its national law”continues Ms. Wright.
“Preparing to join the EU is not just about copying and pasting European law”warns Sébastien Maillard, director of the Jacques-Delors Institute, stating that a “deoligarchization” of the Ukrainian economy will be necessary. “Being a member of the EU means being a liberal democracy, with a market economy”specifies the specialist, referring to the need to establish “an anti-money laundering law” in Ukraine, where corrupt schemes are at work.
Still according to Sébastien Maillard:
“How Ukraine protects its minorities – Greek, Bulgarian, Hungarian and especially Russian-speaking – will also be a key dimension in how the country evolves to meet European standards. »
At the beginning of June, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he was “ready to work” for Ukraine to become “full member of the EU”.
Once the first reforms have been initiated, Ukraine will be able to begin the phase of negotiations, decided by the Council of the EU. Led by a team of negotiators, this phase focuses on thirty chapters, which cover the full spectrum of EU activity. The Commission will make an initial assessment of the progress made between now and the end of the year. However, it is difficult to imagine the EU starting negotiations quickly, while the country is still at war.
What about Europe’s capacity to welcome a country like Ukraine?
Beyond the efforts demanded of Ukraine, its membership is also based on the EU’s ability to welcome a new country under good conditions: sufficient budget, decision-making capacity… If Ukraine is admitted to the largest trading bloc world, it will become the largest country in terms of area and the fifth most populous. “This would have an impact on the balance of power, with a very strong representation of Ukraine in the Council and the European Parliament”analyzes Georgina Wright.
Emmanuel Macron, at the start of his EU presidency and before the war in Ukraine, said before the European Parliament:
“We know very concretely that it is not the current Europe, with its operating rules, which can become a Europe of 31, 32 or 33. That is not true, we would be lying to ourselves. »
The increasingly probable possibility of Ukraine eventually joining the EU therefore constitutes a challenge for Europeans. The Twenty-Seven are facing major upheavals, which are reminiscent of the decisions taken in the 1990s to welcome the former communist countries of Eastern Europe.