The economist, the ecologist and the boss are sounding the alarm about the consequences of inflation on the ecological transition.
Italian Parliament
Philip Martin: The question that arises, and to which I do not yet have an answer, is are we going to side with the Italian parliamentary system or the German parliamentary system? One is blockage and instability. The other is a culture of compromise that, clearly, we have not developed in France, for many institutional, political, historical reasons, etc. I’m rather pessimistic in the short term, because I think this culture of compromise will not take hold quickly, but I’m rather optimistic in the medium to long term because I think those who will be behind the blockage will pay the price. policy relatively quickly. I don’t know if it’s two months, six months, but I think we’ll come to some compromise. But the first times will be very difficult.
Veronique Andrieux: The new deal involves a great deal of dialogue, co-construction, variable-geometry alliances within a framework laid down at European level. We are living through war in Ukraine, the climate crisis and a biodiversity crisis that can no longer wait and can no longer be postponed.
European inflation
PM: The sources of this rise in inflation are quite different in the United States and in Europe. In the United States, there is clearly an effect of Biden’s fiscal stimulus, which has been very strong, almost 10 points of GDP. There is a time when the supply does not keep up with the increase in demand, which leads to inflation and rising wages. In Europe, things are a little different. I do not consider that the recovery plans have had a major impact on the rise in inflation. On our continent, there was manipulation of gas and oil prices before and after the war in Ukraine. This is what economists call an exogenous energy price shock. The contagion has mechanically spread across all sectors, from manufacturing to agriculture.
Dominique Schelcher: For me, the big date is at the start of the school year. Currently, we are in the amazement of the war and the post-election campaign. Everyone tells us: “I have no more money in my wallet, but I am going on vacation, because I need to get some fresh air after this crisis. On September 15, the French will have paid for the holidays and the return to school, for those who have children. How much will be left in the wallet? On fuel, we will have to help more, especially if we go up to 2.50 euros, or even more. The “yellow vests” were out for much less than that.
You have 67.01% of this article left to read. The following is for subscribers only.