A BloombergNEF study estimates the reduction in oil use induced by the growth of 2 and 3 electric wheels, forgetting electric bicycles and scooters. Frandroid has done the calculation for you.
The progression of electrified vehicles is inexorable in France as in Europe and around the world. As a result, their operation via electricity reduces the use of fuel and therefore the demand for oil, but on what scale?
This is the question that was asked BloombergNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance), by organizing its searches by vehicle type. Thus, the report for this fall 2023 indicates that oil demand would drop by 1.5 million barrels per day, two thirds of which coming only from motorized 2 and 3 wheels. Thus, mopeds, motorcycles and electric scooters alone would contribute to 1 million fewer barrels daily. A figure that also includes electric bikes and scooters?
Not sure, BNEF does not explicitly mention these two modes of transport. In a podcast hosted by Bloombergjournalist Akshat Rathi rightly clarified that he “these are more specifically electric scooters than electric bicycles”, by mentioning the two major countries contributing to electric motorized two-wheelers: China and India. In total, 280 million electric 2 and 3 wheels would be rolling around the world in 2023 for BNEF.
10 million barrels per year avoided thanks to soft mobility in France
The study therefore suffers from a blind spot which is VAE (electrically assisted bicycles) and electric scooters. However, these are even more virtuous than electric scooters and motorcycles, especially for short daily journeys. Furthermore, we know that 40% of car journeys are less than 3 kilometers according to Cerema.
If we could replace these journeys by using e-bikes or electric scooters, we would reduce CO2 emissions by around 3.5 to 4 million tonnes per year (based on 165 g/km of CO2 on a car driving in France according to Citepa). This would therefore be almost 1% of France’s total greenhouse gas emissions (CO2eq) in 2022.
In terms of barrels, the reduction would be around 10 million per year in France alone, thanks to electric bikes and scooters on these short journeys. We put aside the negligible emissions produced by these vehicles (10 g/km according to Ademe and discussed in our file on ecological cycling). Also, we take as a basis 7 l/100 km per car in France on average in 2022 (7.3 in 2018 according to CCFA). And we are only talking about use, and not the life cycle, where emissions from e-bikes and scooters would be 30 times lower than automobiles via Transportation Research.
France’s emissions less, if the world started cycling
But for this to happen, the infrastructure must be able to help with their use. Developed in certain large cities and towns, they are still insufficient elsewhere. A 2022 study from Communications Earth & Environment on Nature attempted to estimate the impact of the scenario where the world would be able to use a bicycle for journeys of less than 1.6 km.
In this case, it would reduce CO emissions2 of 414 million tonnes, i.e. those of France in all sectors combined. And under 2.6 km, it would even be 686 million tonnes of CO2 avoided, i.e. 90% of the emissions of our German neighbors.