Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Tough attitude on migration issue
“Poland’s government benefits from the border conflict”
The conflict on the border with Belarus is escalating. But the Polish government benefits “at least in the short term,” as the head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation does in Warsaw, David Gregosz, explains in an interview. Finally, the topic overrides domestic political problems such as inflation or the dispute over abortion law. In addition, the coalition of the EU-skeptical PiS and two small partners could make a name for itself in two areas: migration and criticism of Brussels.
ntv.de: How does the border conflict affect Polish politics?
David Gregosz: The crisis is currently the dominant topic in the political discussion in Poland. And the government benefits from the border conflict, at least in the short term. Because she has always taken a very tough stance on migration issues.
How can you tell that it is benefiting?
David Gregosz heads the Konrad Adenauer Foundation’s international office in Poland.
(Photo: private)
The border crisis is overshadowing issues such as inflation, which is currently seven to eight percent, the worsening pandemic situation and the dispute over the abortion law. The government is under pressure on all of these issues, has been severely criticized in some cases and does not necessarily have a majority behind it. There are also major social protests time and again, with broad opposition to it.
And the conflict with Belarus makes you forget that?
The government is trying to make a name for itself in two areas: migration – a classic instrument used by populists – and the dispute with the EU. Foreign and European policy are here a variable of domestic policy. Everything that is done against Brussels, for example, also targets its own voters and should mobilize them.
Does the government portray the crisis primarily as a national problem?
Yes, as a national task and challenge. That is the keynote of official announcements by the government spokesman or the heads of the governing parties. This is interesting when you look at the dimensions of migration: According to the EU Commission, this year there were 85,000 illegal border crossings across the Union by July. There are around 4,000 to 5,000 migrants stuck on the border between Poland and Belarus, and there have been around 1,000 illegal border crossings. So the crisis is presented as bigger than it actually is.
Chancellor Angela Merkel telephoned the Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko on Tuesday. How is that received?
There is great criticism of the phone call because it is seen as a de facto recognition of the Belarusian regime and Merkel is therefore negotiating with a de facto dictator. This has been sharply criticized in Poland.
How is the Polish opposition reacting to the tough crackdown on the border?
It is difficult for the opposition to develop its own and visible position that stands out from the government. But the question is definitely asked whether the refusal of European aid, for example by the border protection agency Frontex, is not a mistake. Above all, the strongest opposition force, Donald Tusk’s bourgeois PO, criticizes less the government’s tough stance than the fact that there is no cooperation with the EU.
Are there demands for people to be accepted at the border?
As far as I know, there is no political force calling for migrants to be accepted. There is only tentative criticism from the left about the building of the border wall and the demand to help the people.
How do the media report on the crisis?
The impressive images from the border are also being picked up by the state media. Especially the pictures of the last few days when a large group of migrants tried to cross the border. On the other hand, the imposition of a state of emergency over the border area has been criticized by social groups because it restricts free media coverage and raises the question of whether the Polish border guards and the army want to cover up things.
What is PiS and the government about with their tough stance?
As with other issues, the government’s stance can be understood through three key concepts: sovereignty, independence and security. The focus is on these three elements – and this is how the PiS and its coalition partners are enjoying success with the population. When the former EU Council President Donald Tusk returned to Poland in 2019, there was a certain optimism in the opposition. But thanks to the migration issue and its criticism of the EU, the government is on the up again. At least in the short term, the opposition cannot do anything to counter this.
And in the medium or long term?
As the crisis solidifies and people continue to push to the limit and breakthroughs continue, the question will be raised of whether it would not be more efficient to involve the EU and involve Frontex. In addition, the Polish government wants to use EU funds to fortify the border fortifications. In the long term, these questions could weaken the government because they counteract their criticism of the EU.
Just today there was another ECJ ruling against the Polish judicial reform …
This judgment against the Minister of Justice is part of a long series of cases against Poland. Basically, the PiS tries to sit out a bit. She argues that it is not Poland that has changed since joining in 2004, but the EU as a legal community.
How does she justify that?
In all judgments, the government criticizes the fact that Brussels and the ECJ have no competence over non-communitarian areas – for example the appointment of judges or the establishment of a disciplinary body. The fundamental question for the PiS is: Can Brussels do that at all if the legal area has not yet been communitized? There are two legal positions next to each other, and I believe that this will continue for a while. Brussels has little action against Poland because radical sanctions require unanimity in the EU Council, which is not in place.
When it comes to differing legal views, isn’t the Polish government aiming to leave the EU?
Exactly. The leading forces of the government and PiS repeatedly emphasize that the debate about a so-called Polexit is being led primarily by the opposition and the media. That is not entirely true, because there are always people in the PiS environment who very loudly bring an exit from the EU into play or call for an independent Poland in a looser EU. But the leading figures of the PiS, Jaroslaw Kaczynski or Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, are not, in their own words, striving for a polexit. Its aim is to re-discuss the purpose and aim of the EU. The question is whether Poland can achieve this with a confrontational government course.
Markus Lippold spoke to David Gregosz