Tough start for Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s new head of government

At first glance, Italy’s first female prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, is in a more comfortable position than most of her male predecessors. The right-wing camp she leads won the parliamentary elections in September and has a clear majority in both chambers. There has hardly been such a clear balance of power in Italy for decades.

The leadership role of the 45-year-old Roman is also undisputed. Its far-right party, the Fratelli d’Italia, won more votes than its two more moderate partners – Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini’s Lega – combined. Long before Meloni took over the little bell from her predecessor Mario Draghi on Sunday, as tradition dictates, it was clear that she would become prime minister.

Few mistakes and good intentions Melonis

Meloni made surprisingly few mistakes in the weeks after her election victory. The shrill, strongly polarizing far-right politician transformed overnight into a responsible stateswoman. No more nationalist incendiary speeches. No polemics against European bureaucrats, left-wing enemies of the state or migrants.

With a clear commitment to Europe and the transatlantic alliance, Meloni managed to allay the fears that a party with fascist roots had aroused in the EU and NATO allies. The advocacy of her predecessor Draghi, with whom Meloni has agreed in recent weeks, also helped. This prevented costly turbulence on the financial markets, which occurred after a populist coalition took power in the summer of 2019.

Meloni seems aware of the great challenge she faces. It does not paint the economic situation and geopolitical problems nicely. She sleeps badly, she said soberly after her election victory. Italy’s economy was recovering somewhat under Draghi’s broad-based technocrat government when war broke out in Ukraine. The consequences are felt more clearly in heavily indebted Italy than anywhere else in Europe. The fear of the next recession and social unrest is great.

Meloni planned to form a small, competent government team. She wanted to fill key ministries with experienced technocrats and only include proven politicians in the cabinet. But then she too landed on the ground of the reality of Italian coalition politics. Their two partners primarily focused on securing their own power. They demanded important ministries for close confidants whose professional competence seemed secondary.

In a week-long, nerve-wracking job swap, the slim cabinet was sacrificed, and the top-class technocrats showed no interest. Meloni had to leave more posts to coalition partners than she would have liked. By no means all of the new ministers and state secretaries meet the promised quality criteria.

Exhausting power struggle with Berlusconi

Even before the government was in office, the first serious “coalition crash” broke out. Silvio Berlusconi simply does not want to accept the leadership claim of a woman who is almost half his age. The 86-year-old media mogul and former prime minister – whose jokes are becoming increasingly confused and whose face looks increasingly disfigured after countless cosmetic surgeries – has disavowed Meloni with disrespectful remarks and questionable leaks in recent days.

It was not only about posts, but also about tough foreign policy. With hymns of praise for his old friend Vladimir Putin and hair-raising statements about the Ukraine war, Berlusconi undermines Meloni’s efforts to position Italy clearly alongside Kiev and its NATO partners. He is also causing unrest in Brussels and Washington.

The right-wing camp is not as united and strong as its leader would like us to believe. The three parties have different positions, especially on foreign policy, but also on other important issues. Conflicts were to be expected, but the fact that a public exchange of blows erupted so quickly must worry the new head of government.

A lot of potential for disruption in your own cabinet

With an ultimatum, she temporarily closed the ranks again. However, the happy event of the Italian right coming to power, which the three party leaders have been working towards for years, has been tarnished. When the designated head of government appeared in front of the assembled press after her meeting with the president on Friday with a serious face, Salvini and Berlusconi stood next to her with a bitter smile.

The harmony played should not last long. Berlusconi is not the only one to criticize Meloni’s pro-European and pro-Atlantic course. There are also many people who understand Putin in the ranks of the Lega. If energy and food prices continue to rise, criticism of sanctions against Russia is likely to become louder.

Meloni has brought several close confidants into the cabinet and filled the most important posts with people who represent their line. The new foreign minister, Antonio Tajani, is an ardent European. He sat in the European Parliament for years and was even its President. He represents the more sensible wing of Forza Italia and, as Berlusconi’s deputy, will try to minimize his influence in the government. But there are also party colleagues in the cabinet and in parliament who still follow the aged boss blindly. You will make it difficult for the hated Meloni to govern.

With Giancarlo Giorgetti, Meloni has made a capable Lega man Finance Minister. He is considered an admirer of Mario Draghi and has been a moderating counterbalance to party leader Matteo Salvini behind the scenes in recent years. Meloni has refused the desired interior ministry. Instead, he is now infrastructure minister and at the same time, as a treat, her deputy. First of all, the great self-promoter has lined up. In the future, however, he too will seize every opportunity to make his mark, even if it harms the government.

Giorgia Meloni left office on Saturday not as a beaming winner, but as a worn-out leader of a divided coalition. Four weeks after her electoral success, she is likely to feel as powerless as most of her predecessors.

Against abortion and same-sex partnerships

Since in the last four weeks almost only personal details and hardly any political content has been negotiated, it is still difficult to predict where Italy will go under Giorgia Meloni. The far-right politician has very limited room for maneuver in European and economic policy. Italy is too dependent on the billions from the EU’s recovery fund to afford budgetary adventures or go it alone in Europe. Apart from that, the influential entrepreneurs in the country are also very critical of a rapprochement with the countries of Hungary and Poland, which are led by right-wing nationalist governments, and plead for good relations with Brussels, Paris and Berlin.

But does Meloni really have what it takes to transform a nationalist far-right party into a pro-European conservative force? Or does she turn out to be a she-wolf in sheep’s clothing, who appears moderate for reasons of electoral tactics, but then falls back to her radical positions in the heat of daily politics? Meloni probably doesn’t know the answer to this question himself.

In order to satisfy their traditional base on the extreme right, Meloni initially only remains with socio-political projects such as the fight against abortion and same-sex partnerships. She has already given a worrying signal in this regard. The new head of the Chamber of Deputies is Lorenzo Fontana, an ultra-conservative representative of the pro-life movement. He belongs to a reactionary Catholic community and, among other things, spreads conspiracy theories according to which Muslim immigration is intended to purposefully displace the Christian majority population in Europe.

However, the vast majority of Italians are relatively liberal, and excessive restrictions on the rights of women, LGBT and other minorities would meet with resistance in the country. All the more so since many women expect improvements for their own sex, not fewer freedoms, from Meloni, the first prime minister in Italy’s history. The new head of government’s room for maneuver is limited, even in the socio-political area.