Trump in operation reconquest: why he “will surely not launch in 2024”

A very offensive speech, but political weight far from certain: during his first meeting of the year held last Saturday in Arizona, former US President Donald Trump crushed the government of his successor Joe Biden and affirmed that the Republicans would regain power. “This year we’re going to take back the House, we’re going to take back the Senate, we’re going to take back America, it’s so important. And in 2024, we’re going to take back the White House”, he proclaimed in front of a crowd of a few thousand people.

The former tenant of the White House attacked more broadly the “Washington politicians” who seek to “control” the lives of Americans according to him, while again claiming that his side had won the presidential elections against Joe Biden – a claim that has yet to be proven. Despite these projections, Donald Trump is far from weighing in the mid-term elections, scheduled for November, and even less from claiming the presidential elections of 2024, analyzes Jean-Eric Branaa, lecturer in political science at Paris II-Assas and specialist in the United States.

Did Donald Trump show ambitions for the 2024 presidential elections during his meeting?

I do not think so. He says his side will take over the White House, but he hasn’t said it will be because of him. What is certain is that he remains in the circuit, but above all we see someone who has not digested his defeat, who does not accept it and would like those around him to do the same. .

But his rally was not directed only against the Democrats: he also attacked the Republicans who voted for his impeachment (his dismissal, following the assault on the Capitol by his supporters on January 6, 2020, editor’s note) and those who certified Joe Biden’s victory, including the governor of Arizona himself, Doug Ducey. Donald Trump announced that if he ran for senatorial elections, he would not have his support, like other Republican governors. But if you want to be a candidate in 2024, you don’t start attacking so many people in your own camp.

Moreover, it is no longer the Donald Trump of the 2016 campaign: I have the feeling that it was a twilight meeting, without any proposal. He’s also getting old, and he drags a lot of pots, if only the legal problems – even if the investigation into the assault on the Capitol does not target him personally. And then there is this rather terrible sign: the public only climbed to 8,000 people, while a tidal wave of 60,000 to 70,000 people was announced, especially since Arizona is a state very conservative. Even Fox News did not broadcast the meeting live! I therefore think that he will surely not embark on a campaign in 2024. We will have to wait for his next meeting scheduled for January 29 in Texas to judge better, but I think that he will not do better.

Is he still authoritative within his own party?

Many Republicans are raising their voices against him, starting with the leader of the Republican senators, Mitch McConnell, whom the former president also attacked during his meeting. At the level of the House of Representatives, on the other hand, the deputies are more easily silent because the support of Donald Trump is useful to win in states where the vote between Democrats and Republicans is tight and where there are very many Republican candidates. . But even on this electoral process, it does not weigh so much, because it gave only 93 supports out of the nearly 20,000 votes expected in the mid-term elections, all positions presented and all levels gathered. And of these 93 supporters, 60 go to governors or senators, so big posts whose outgoing are sure to be elected and do not need the support of Donald Trump.

Besides, those he supports do not seem to be the favorites at the moment. In Georgia, for example, a traditionally Republican state, Donald Trump has affixed a candidate to outgoing governor Brian Kemp, but he only reaches 50% of the voting intentions in the polls. We cannot therefore say for the moment that Donald Trump will be a kingmaker during these primaries, even if he will try to be influential there. For me, he does not weigh in the party today, he has no network, no possibility of getting people elected.

It should also be noted that we can already predict a victory for the Republicans in the House of Representatives, but this is based more on a technical mechanism than on the possible influence of Donald Trump: the recent population census has revealed that there are more states held by Republicans, so they weigh more heavily in the vote. And then, on the horizon of 2024, we are already seeing potential Republican candidates rising very strongly, like Ron DeSantis, the Governor of Florida, who criticizes Donald Trump every day and is gaining places in the polls. Donald Trump can fight one, but not six, seven or eight candidates. It therefore seems to me that its comeback is for the time being only a media fantasy.

Can he still play on the assertion that the elections were stolen, which he hammered home throughout his speech, to regain ground?

It’s true that according to polls, 44% of Americans still think there was cheating. But it is above all the sign of a general distrust vis-à-vis the political group. There is a disconnect between people living their everyday lives and those doing politics from Washington.

Because, however, 60% of Americans do not want Donald Trump to return, even among those who supported him. Today, the fact that violence has taken hold in the United States displeases everyone, and everyone wants to end it. As after a fall, the pain is sharp and no one wants to fall again, even if society is still divided. Even within the Republicans, we no longer want to side with the one who gets angry, even if we think he is right.

And then there is a revolution in thinking in the United States in four to five years. Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris is increasingly asserting herself: she is a possible presidential candidate in people’s minds. Today, in public opinion, no one is against the arrival of a woman to the presidency. The glass ceiling has exploded, when just four years ago, Hillary Clinton herself declared that her position as a woman was a barrier to access to the presidency. Moreover, Kamala Harris is young, and the Republican camp will want to oppose a candidate who is also young, rather than Donald Trump, who is already 75 years old. We have passed into another world.