Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan conceded on Sunday the historic victory of the opposition in the municipal elections, which according to him constitute a “turning point” for his camp, in power since 2002. The counting of nearly 99% of ballot boxes across national confirms that the Turkish opposition has inflicted its worst electoral debacle on the head of state’s AKP (Islamo-conservative) party in two decades.
Defeat accepted
The main opposition party, the CHP (social democrat), claimed victory in Istanbul and Ankara, the two largest cities in Turkey, and won many others, such as Bursa, a large industrial city in the northwest acquired from the AKP since 2004. The proclamation of the final results by the High Electoral Commission (YSK) expected on Monday will confirm these results, already integrated by the main stakeholders, including the head of state.
From his party headquarters in Ankara and in front of a dejected, unusually silent crowd, the Turkish president promised to “respect the decision of the Nation”. Shortly before, the outgoing mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, a media-loving and dashing fifty-year-old, announced his re-election at the head of Turkey’s largest city, which he conquered in 2019, without even waiting for the official results to be announced.
“Tonight democracy will surge […] in the squares, in the streets, universities, cafes and restaurants of Istanbul”, launched the city councilor in front of tens of thousands of his supporters, exultant, rushing to the headquarters of the municipality, under a surge of Turkish red flags and smoke bombs. In Ankara, CHP Mayor Mansur Yavas, well in the lead, had also already claimed victory, declaring in front of a cheering crowd that “those who were ignored sent a clear message to those who lead this country”.
Breakthrough in Anatolia
“The voters have chosen to change the face of Turkey,” said CHP leader Ozgur Ozel. In addition to Izmir (west), the country’s third city and stronghold of the CHP, and Antalya (south) where opposition supporters began to celebrate victory in the streets, the main opposition group achieved a spectacular breakthrough in Anatolia. She is leading the race in provincial capitals long held by the AKP, according to almost final results which took observers by surprise.
President Erdogan, aged 70, 21 in power, had thrown all his weight into the campaign, particularly in Istanbul, the “jewel” of the country, its economic and cultural capital of which he was mayor in the 1990s and who switched to the opposition in 2019. But the commitment of the head of state, who announced at the beginning of March that these elections were “his last”, was not enough.
“There is a need for balance at least at the local level against the government,” Serhan Solak, 56, a resident of Ankara who came to vote for Mansur Yavas, the outgoing CHP mayor, told AFP on Sunday morning. The AKP candidates, however, remained in the lead in several large cities in Anatolia (Konya, Kayseri, Erzurum) and the Black Sea (Rize, Trabzon), strongholds of President Erdogan, while the pro-Kurdish party DEM secured a comfortable lead in several large cities in the Kurdish-majority southeast, including Diyarbakir, the informal capital of Turkey’s Kurds.
Erdogan aims for 2028
Throughout the campaign, President Erdogan held daily meetings, benefiting from unlimited air time on public television, when his opponents were almost deprived of it. The defeat of his Justice and Development Party, particularly in Istanbul, will have serious consequences.
Clinging to the city, the president canceled the 2019 municipal election, only to see Ekrem Imamoglu win with a vengeance in a second election held three months later, thus suffering his worst electoral setback since his arrival to power in 2003 as Prime Minister. The mayor of Istanbul, subscribed to the podium of the Turks’ favorite political figures, has since continued to pose as a direct rival to the head of state, who nevertheless portrayed him as a devoured “part-time mayor”. by its national ambitions.
For many observers, once elected, the mayor of Istanbul will have a path towards the 2028 presidential election. The resigned head of state spoke of the “four years of work […] not to waste” until then, a way of ruling out the possibility of an early election which would allow him to run again.