In the Mediterranean, NATO is flexing its muscles. The USS Harry S. Truman, which can accommodate up to 85 aircraft, patrols together with escort ships. “For the first time since the Cold War, a complete US aircraft carrier group is under NATO command,” the defense alliance proudly tweeted on Monday.
Officially it is a military exercise. She claims to have nothing to do with the Ukraine conflict. “Neptune Strike 22” has been “planned for a long time,” said the Pentagon. However: The maneuver was missing from a NATO list of exercises planned for 2022 published in December.
It is just one of the many signs of what is currently unfolding between the US and Russia: a cold war. The tense confrontation over Ukraine is reminiscent of the decades in which the two victorious powers of the Second World War found themselves in global system competition, primarily through arms races, threats and espionage. Top diplomats on both sides have already described the situation in this way.
«Decisive for the whole world»
Dmitri Polyansky, Russia’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, calls the conflict a “Cold War 2.0”. “What we have now is a kind of re-run of the Cold War,” he said last month.
“The United States is in a new Cold War that will decide the future of Europe, indeed the whole world,” writes Jim Gilmore, US Ambassador to the OSCE until mid-January, in an analysis for Foreign Policy.
And it could well be that the Cold War will soon become a hot one. The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister compared the current situation to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, when the US and the Soviet Union were on the verge of a nuclear conflict.
Blick shows some of the similarities with the Cold War:
1. USA and Russia pull together their allies
The Russian “NATO counterpart” CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) was long considered a toothless tiger. During the anti-government protests in Kazakhstan at the beginning of the year, the military alliance, which includes Russia and Kazakhstan as well as Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, demonstrated its operational capability for the first time.
In addition, Putin wants to meet his Chinese counterpart at the start of the Winter Olympics in China. In a phone call between the two presidents in December, Xi Jinping (68) supported Russia’s demand that Ukraine should never join NATO.
After initial voting difficulties, the West is trying to achieve unity. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Kiev and Berlin last week to close ranks. On Monday he took part in a video conference of EU foreign ministers.
2. Both countries are rearming vigorously again
Even if he denies a planned invasion, Putin has been massing more than 100,000 soldiers on the Ukrainian border for weeks. In addition to troops on his own border with Ukraine, Putin recently transferred armed forces to Belarus.
Even outside of times of crisis, the USA has stationed tens of thousands of soldiers in Europe. In response to the escalating Ukraine conflict, the Biden government has now put around 8,500 soldiers in the United States on increased readiness. She also wants to send several thousand soldiers, warships and planes to support NATO allies in the Baltic States and Eastern Europe.
Other NATO member states are also relocating war equipment and delivering weapons. On Monday, the EU also promised Ukraine support for military training.
However, there is one important difference to the Cold War: the “nuclear option” is not up for debate. The nuclear arms race ended with the Cold War. In 1991 the USA and Russia signed a disarmament agreement. Despite the tense situation, neither country seems to have any interest in renewed nuclear armament.
3. Both countries exert political pressure
Russia has made far-reaching security requirements that, from a NATO perspective, cannot be met. Two draft contracts were already published in December. Russia demands a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO and an end to NATO activities in Eastern Europe.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has announced that every step taken by a Russian soldier across the Ukrainian border is one too many. Other war tactics such as cyber attacks would not be tolerated either.
After the last meeting on Friday in Geneva, the USA promised a written answer to the Russian demands. Further meetings – possibly also between the presidents – are to follow.
4. The US threatens sanctions
The western coalition has threatened the Kremlin with “massive” and “unprecedented” sanctions if Russia attacks Ukraine. Exclusion of Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system could be on the scales – that would hit the Russian economy hard.
The measure would not only make it more difficult for Russian banks to make and receive international payments, but also significantly weaken the ruble. Russia’s energy giants would be particularly affected.
However, Russia professor Alexander Libman from the FU Berlin also calls the measure “atomic bomb” in relation to the “Tagesschau” because it would affect international trade.
In the case of oil and gas, this would have serious consequences, according to Libman. “If Russian deliveries simply fail tomorrow, there could be a massive price increase on the gas markets. This will lead to further complications for the European economy.”
In addition, China could undermine Western efforts. Among other things, Russia and China have already developed their own alternatives to SWIFT – even if they are not yet equally established.
5. They fight for other lands
As in the Cold War, the conflict between the USA and Russia is particularly evident outside of their own territories. Both are heavily involved in regional conflicts – on different sides.
Syria deserves a special mention, where Russia has been supporting ruler Bashar Assad (56) since 2015. A proxy war has long since developed from the civil war.
In Belarus, where Putin helped ruler Alexander Lukashenko (67) to suppress the great wave of protests in 2020, the US did not intervene militarily, but supported the democratic opposition. Among other things, Biden met in July last year with the exiled election winner Svetlana Tichanovskaya (39) in the White House.
6. Russia influences Western politics
Russia is said to have had a hand in the 2016 US elections, which Trump won, through cyber attacks and disinformation – as numerous secret service reports prove. Moscow denies the allegations.
With regard to Ukraine, the ideological infiltration may take on a new dimension: Great Britain on Saturday accused Russia of wanting to overthrow the elected Ukrainian government and replace it with a pro-Russian “puppet regime”.
7. Propaganda via media and social networks
After the meeting between the US and Russia on Friday in Geneva, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (71) accused the West of “anti-Russian propaganda”. In fact, Russia has perfected the disinformation game.
For example, Germany recently blocked the Russian propaganda channel “Russia Today”. The Zoff is not over yet, but the federal government rates RT Deutsch and other media or subsidiaries as “key players in a complex network that disseminates their narratives on behalf of Russian state agencies, among other things with the aim of influencing the political opinion-forming process in Germany. »
In the US, the problem has a different dimension. For example, ex-President Donald Trump and his team used Fox News to disseminate unconfirmed Russian information about political opponents, a report by CNN revealed.
Fox News figurehead Tucker Carlson (52) is also regularly noticed for spreading Russian propaganda. Even the Russian state television applauds him for this.