Ukraine Talk at Illner
“The situation in the Bundeswehr is more precarious than ever”
By Marko Schlichting
01/20/2023, 03:25 am
Germany has a new defense minister in Boris Pistorius. He was sworn in on Thursday and then met with his American counterpart. An important decision could be made this Friday. The guests at Maybrit Illner discussed this on Thursday evening.
Will the federal government approve deliveries of Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine? The Allies will probably come to an agreement on this at a meeting in Ramstein this Friday. Then the new Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius from the SPD will have to prove himself on the international stage for the first time. In the ZDF talk show “Maybrit Illner”, the guests highlighted the most urgent tasks that the new minister will face. The Panzer decision is just one of them.
“I’m very happy that he’s now the new Minister of Defense,” says SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert with relief. “And I hope he can prove himself without having to do that in a state of war in our neighborhood.” A wish that is unlikely to come true. Both military expert Carlo Masala and André Wüstner, colonel and chairman of the German Bundeswehr Association fear that the war in Ukraine could drag on for years.
For Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff it is important that politicians in Germany understand the “magnitude and drama of the necessary reforms”. Kleine-Brockhoff works for the “German Marshall Fund of the United States,” a US foundation that says it wants to promote transatlantic relations in politics, business, and society. In his opinion, defense policy in Germany is facing important reforms in financing, equipment and procurement.
In recent years, Germany has disarmed, especially in the number of soldiers – from half a million to 180,000. The task now must be “to keep this small force modern, defensible and deterrent. And I wish for a bit of Germany’s pace.” Germany has managed to build LNG terminals within just under a year. “But we weren’t in such a hurry with the defense. You have to put a load of coal on it.”
“He masters the vocabulary”
Military expert Masala hopes that Pistorius could be the right man in the right position. “He has a pretty good command of the vocabulary and he gives the impression that he has an idea of what he is saying.” But Masala also knows that the secretary of defense is only part of a whole. A large team is needed for the necessary reforms. Because the Ministry of Defense and the Bundeswehr are huge and very complicated machines.
The priority now is for Germany to be perceived again as a reliable partner by the allies, stresses Serap Güler, a member of the Bundestag for the CDU and who is also a member of the Defense Committee. At the meeting of the alliance partners in Ramstein, a decision must be made on the delivery of “Leopard 2” battle tanks to Ukraine. “We can deliver the tanks,” she says.
However, the main issue on which the allies in Ramstein must focus is the geopolitical dimension of the war. Should Ukraine not win, the security of Europe would be at stake. “That’s why the delivery of tanks is just a follow-up. If we equip Ukraine with main battle tanks in addition to infantry fighting vehicles, that’s actually just the logical conclusion so that Ukraine can defend itself.”
“The Leo is not a game changer”
But here the expert Carlo Masala calms down: The “Leopard 2” is not really decisive for the war. Its advantage over the “Leopard 1” is that it can hold its own in a tank duel. He could help to liberate areas in Ukraine occupied by Russia. But: “The ‘Leopard’ is not a game changer,” says Masala. The allies could currently deliver 50 to 80 “Leopards”, i.e. two battalions. According to German operational principles, an area of ten square kilometers could be defended. However, the front in eastern Ukraine is around 1,300 kilometers long.
“The tanks have a symbolic character,” explains Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff. Russian President Putin is assuming the weakness of the western allies. The task of the tanks is to show Putin that the West will not back down and that Russia cannot keep up with Western industrial production. However, it is important to advance ammunition production.
“We are more or less naked”
But André Wüstner from the Bundeswehr Association sees another problem: Germany’s ability to defend itself. “We’re more or less naked,” he says. “The situation in the Bundeswehr is more precarious than ever before.” Over the past year, the company has repeatedly delivered its own stocks to the Ukraine. Politicians failed to replace what was delivered.
Masala supports him: “We are acting like in peacetime. One of the tasks of the new minister will be to agree a coordinated approach with the arms industry,” he says. Wüstner: “We finally have to step on the gas.” If, for example, an ammunition factory is to be opened, you can’t let two years go by for the approval process. “Politicians have not yet heard the shot!”
But Kevin Kühnert has good news: the government is working on it. “We’re going to introduce a legislative package to speed it all up.” When? “In the near future.”