The shadow of a “Finlandization” of Ukraine hung over Emmanuel Macron’s trip to Russia on Monday February 7 and Ukraine on Tuesday February 8. In Kiev, the Head of State denied ever having uttered this taboo word for the NATO allies. He knows that brandishing a concept inherited from the Cold War can hold up, or weaken, his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, so eager is the latter to join the Atlantic Alliance in order to protect himself from the Russian threat. The expression refers to the status of neutrality of Finland, which is not a member of NATO, even if it does not exclude becoming one.
Officially, the question is not on the agenda. But the Elysée does not hide being in search of a formula to guarantee the security of Ukraine, without ignoring the main demand of Vladimir Putin: to put an end to the eastward expansion of the Atlantic Alliance. A red line for Westerners, who refused any arrangement in this direction in their responses to requests from Moscow in mid-January.
Questions about French intentions came from a short sentence uttered Monday by the Head of State on the flight that took him to Moscow. Asked about a possible “Finlandization” of Ukraine, he then replied without taking up the expression: “This is one of the models that are on the table. » “You don’t have to look for a term of reference right away, he continued in stride, I think we’re going to invent something new by definition. »
On his way to Kiev this time, the French president said he was struck by Vladimir Putin’s insistence on freezing NATO enlargement: “I found him determined, quite sure of himself and advancing with his logic”, he confided, on the plane, the day after their five hours of face-to-face. The head of the Kremlin had not hesitated to agitate the risks, for the members of NATO, that a possible integration into the Alliance of Ukraine would run, if the latter sought to retake Crimea by arms: “NATO and Russia are not comparable, but Russia is a nuclear power and you would be dragged into this conflict against your will,” he had launched in front of the press, alongside the French president.
Inappropriate term
In this hostile context, the question of the links between NATO and Ukraine is extremely sensitive, not only in Kiev, but also in Western capitals. And for good reason: a possible “Finlandization” would suppose keeping Ukraine out of NATO, at least for a while, while offering it security guarantees. A perspective that states like Poland do not want to hear about. Mr. Macron himself never utters the word likely to anger his allies. His entourage considers that the term is not appropriate in the current situation: “It is up to Ukraine to say what it wants to defend its sovereignty, it is not up to us to suggest it, even less to impose it”, they say at the Elysée.
You have 60.67% of this article left to read. The following is for subscribers only.