Ukrainian military expert
“Surovikin understands that the right bank of the Dnipro cannot be held”
10/20/2022 11:54 am
The Ukrainian lieutenant colonel aD Oleksiy Melnyk assumes that Russia is preparing the withdrawal in Kherson. However, he fears that the Russians could blow up a dam on the Ukrainian side of the front to buy time. “We’re talking about a humanitarian and technological catastrophe for the entire region,” he says in an interview with ntv.de. In view of the Ukrainian offensive in the south, he does not consider the fact that the wet season is now beginning in Ukraine to be a major problem.
ntv.de: Mr. Melnyk, for the past week and a half, Russia has been attacking critical infrastructure facilities all over Ukraine, especially thermal power plants. Is this only intended to intimidate the population, or is there a military purpose behind it?
Oleksiy Melnyk is a retired lieutenant colonel in the Ukrainian army and co-director of the international security programs of the Kiev think tank Razumkova Center. Between 2005 and 2008, Melnyk was also the first adviser to the Ukrainian defense minister. He is one of the most prominent military experts in Ukraine.
(Photo: razumkov)
Oleksiy Melnyk: I don’t see any major military purpose here, apart from the fact that this will put additional strain on the Ukrainian air defense system. The intimidation of the civilian population is indeed one of Russia’s most important motives, especially if you look at the goals. 30 percent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was at least partially destroyed by the attacks. Military objects in the hinterland, on the other hand, are hardly ever attacked. Russia wants to compensate for its inability to advance on the battlefield. With this, Moscow wants to force the political leadership in Kyiv to negotiate – but it only increases the determination of Ukrainian society to fight back.
Apparently, the Russian army has recently deployed en masse Iranian kamikaze drones of the Shahed-136 type, marked in Russia under the name Geran-2. How dangerous are they?
They’re cheap, fly very low, are comparatively small if not compared to many other drones, and the Russians can launch many at once. It is also dangerous that you can hardly see them on the radar. However, it didn’t take Ukraine long to understand how to intercept them: recently, around 85 percent of the drones were shot down. But Russia has probably ordered around 2,400 such drones, and with this mass there is always a risk that the remaining 15 percent will reach their destination. It is important for Ukraine to detect the drones in good time and to follow their route precisely. Because these drones can only change their trajectory to a limited extent. They are therefore used against static targets, not against military targets that can move. To destroy these drones you need radar jamming stations. They can be shot down with both short- and medium-range anti-aircraft systems and simply with firearms.
How is the Ukrainian army positioned in terms of anti-aircraft defense?
Ukraine has many short-range anti-aircraft missiles, which include Stinger man-portable anti-aircraft missiles. Territorial defense and border guards often shoot down drones with these, but one or two cruise missiles have also been intercepted in this way. However, the range is only up to five kilometers in altitude. Overall, everything that has a shorter range than 40 kilometers – including the IRIS-T system supplied from Germany – is a short-range missile and is used to defend a front section or the critical infrastructure. Ukraine has deficits here and needs more systems, but there are real problems in the medium and long-haul range. In the case of air defense, that is a range of 80 kilometers on the one hand and 200 kilometers and more on the other. Ukraine has Soviet systems and modernized systems of Soviet origin, but lacks missiles for them, which can hardly be reproduced. In addition, combat aircraft would be very important – Ukraine cannot close its airspace with ground-based anti-aircraft defense alone. A cruise missile on the route of which there are no anti-aircraft systems can only be intercepted by a combat aircraft.
Reuters reports that Russia could also buy ballistic missiles from Iran. Would that be a problem for Ukraine?
Due to their specific trajectory, ballistic missiles are difficult to launch using conventional methods, and this would require supplies of special missile defense systems. But actually, long-range ballistic missiles of the ATACMS type are urgently needed for Kyiv in order to be able to use them in the US HIMARS multiple rocket launcher. This can reach targets up to 300 kilometers away – and it could destroy the bases from which these missiles are launched.
The occupation administration of Kherson is to be transferred to the east bank of the Dnipro River. In addition, the new commander-in-chief of the Russian troops in Ukraine, Sergey Surovikin, spoke on Tuesday of a “not easy” situation in the Cherson district, which could lead to “not easy decisions”. Is Russia preparing to withdraw from the right bank?
Basically, I think Surovikin understands that the right bank cannot be held. They can no longer properly supply the troops there [weil die Ukraine die Brücken über den Dnipro zerstört hat]. But what worries me is that Surovikin and others are saying that the Ukrainians intend to blow up the dam at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. Of course, the Ukrainians have absolutely no interest in that, everyone knows that. However, Russia would then have achieved a buffer zone for itself so that the forces could retreat in an orderly manner and the Ukrainian offensive would then stumble. Moreover, Moscow could exploit it for propaganda purposes by claiming that Ukraine subjected its own citizens to a flood. We are talking about a humanitarian and technological catastrophe for the entire region.
How likely do you think it is that Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons in the Kherson district?
That won’t help the Russians there, either militarily or politically. If they really use such weapons in Ukraine, it probably won’t happen in Kherson district.
What will Russia do with the troops that are still in Kherson if they successfully withdraw?
It is possible that they will be transferred to the Donetsk region, where the Russians have been trying to advance towards the city of Bakhmut for some time. Although mercenaries from the so-called Wagner Group, who have plenty of combat experience, are also deployed there, the Russian successes there are manageable. At least Russia is not on the defensive there.
Belarus and Russia are currently working on setting up a joint troop association in Belarus. Does this mean that Kyiv is threatened with a new attack?
It is initially about 9,000 Russian soldiers. Apparently there are no elite troops there, but mostly reservists who have just been mobilized. Nothing can be ruled out for the future, but there is no danger from there in the next few weeks. So far, this has served the purpose of tying down parts of the Ukrainian army on the border with Belarus. But that can change at some point.
The warm days are coming to an end in Ukraine. How will the weather affect combat?
Late autumn is traditionally not considered a particularly good time for acts of war. That’s partly true, because in southern Ukraine, for example, offensive activities are then limited to paved roads. This is of course an additional danger for advancing troops. So far, however, the Ukrainian tactic has been to cut off the enemy’s supply routes and to destroy ammunition depots in a targeted manner. With a view to this approach, hardly anything will probably change.
Denis Trubetskoy spoke to Oleksiy Melnyk