In short: these sanctions weigh heavily on the Russian economy, contrary to what the Kremlin and the National Rally in France claim.
In long version, if you are in good shape: according to Russian propaganda, the economic sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, have created a “war of economic attrition that is wreaking havoc in the West”which would be opposed by the supposed ” resilience “ even ” prosperity “ of the Russian economy. This story is “simply wrong”explain these experts, who denounce “selected statistics” by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
According to their analysis, “Company departures and sanctions cripple the Russian economy, in the short and long term”. Economic sanctions, therefore, deter many companies and countries from continuing to trade with Russia. And the country is struggling to obtain spare parts and raw materials, or to obtain certain essential technologies.
The picture is dark: “Despite the illusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution (…), Russian domestic production has come to a complete halt and lacks the capacity to replace lost companies, products and talent. » Companies that have left the country “represent about 40% of its GDP, canceling out almost all of the three decades of foreign investment”also argue the authors of this survey.
To overcome these weaknesses, Vladimir Putin “uses unsustainable fiscal and monetary intervention”and Kremlin finances “are in a much more desperate situation than is admitted”.
As to “pivot to China” wanted by Vladimir Putin, it could be based on “unrealistic optimistic assumptions”. “Russia is a minor trading partner for China, (…) and most Chinese companies cannot risk violating US sanctions”, thus describe the authors of the study. They also point out that Chinese companies “lack upstream many of the technologies needed to sustain and service Russia’s oil and gas supply. »
According to the International Monetary Fund, Russia will see a recession in its gross domestic product (GDP) of 6% in 2022, according to its latest forecast published on Tuesday.