Wednesday, December 29, 2021
“Understanding” of the data
Lauterbach: Incidence “two to three times as high” as reported
Federal Minister of Health Lauterbach is concerned about the inadequate data situation on the pandemic. Many new infections were not recorded during the holidays, he warns. Experts recognize an upcoming Omikron wave, especially in Hamburg and Bremen.
Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach sees a significantly more critical corona situation in Germany due to reporting delays over Christmas and urges caution on New Year’s Eve. He came to the conclusion “that the actual incidence is currently two to three times as high as the reported one,” said the SPD politician. He appealed to all citizens to spend the turn of the year in such a way that no new chains of infection arise. “Please celebrate in a very small group and do not endanger each other.”
The number of cases just reported after reports from the health authorities underestimated the existing risk. Lauterbach said he was expecting “in a few weeks” with a significant increase in the proportion that is attributable to the more contagious new virus variant Omikron, as well as the number of cases overall. He does not consider a decline that is currently being observed to be sustainable. The protective measures currently in use that successfully countered the delta wave would not be enough to prevent a significant increase in the number of omicron cases. The minister also warned against transferring strong increases in infections in other countries directly to Germany, as there are sometimes more protective measures in place in this country.
The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) now gave the seven-day incidence as 205.5 – with the restriction that the data could provide an incomplete picture. The previous day, the number of new infections reported per 100,000 inhabitants in seven days was 215.6, a week ago it was 289.0. The health authorities reported 40,043 new corona infections to the RKI within one day, and another 414 people died in connection with an infection. Experts and politicians had already pointed out that the official figures are only of limited significance.
Office staff is exhausted
The background is fewer tests, for example in the workplace, as Lauterbach said. In addition, fewer test results would be reported. The health authorities are not to be blamed for. Over the holidays, however, there is a general lack of staff there. The minister emphasized that the Prime Minister’s conference with Chancellor Olaf Scholz on January 7th would have “solid data that are perfectly adequate for these purposes”. The federal and state governments had set the date to reassess the situation. The vaccination campaign is picking up speed again after Christmas.
On Tuesday, 608,000 cans were injected, the RKI announced. Around 535,000 people were vaccinated on Monday. On the other hand, between December 24th and 26th, the number of vaccinations fell sharply. At least 59 million people or 71 percent of the population now have full basic protection with the second injection, which is usually necessary. At least 31 million people (37.3 percent) also received a booster vaccination. Lauterbach called again to use vaccination offers from the campaign, which was running at full speed. The reinforcing “boosters” are the best vaccination against Omikron, and this takes effect after just one week.
The German Association of Cities called on the federal and state governments to create sufficient vaccine reserves and to guarantee permanent vaccination capacities in the cities. “People will also need booster vaccinations in the new year 2022, we are firmly assuming,” said President Markus Lewe to the newspapers of the Funke media group. The number of reliably proven and probable Omikron cases in Germany has risen again. 13,129 would now be assigned to this new Corona variant, 26 percent more than the day before, according to an RKI overview on Wednesday. The number relates to cases in November and December, 7632 of which are from last week.
Discussion about quarantine duration continues
The increase indicates with relative certainty that Omikron has an increasingly large share in the infection process in Germany, said the modeler Dirk Brockmann from the Humboldt University of Berlin. In northern German cities such as Hamburg and Bremen, the variant already plays a major role. One should not be lulled into a false sense of security by the corona data, which is currently limited, as this is evident in other countries. “It can suddenly start very quickly and then very strongly.”
In the discussion about a possible shortening of quarantine times, the RKI expressed itself cautiously on request. In general, all recommendations would be continuously checked and adjusted if necessary. “In general, however, we cannot speculate whether, when and in which direction recommendations will be changed.” The US health authority CDC had announced that it would shorten the recommended quarantine from ten to five days after an infection. The reason is that most infections take place early in the course of the disease.