Inflation is falling. Slightly. But it remains expected above 2% for the whole of 2024. And around 2.5% until the summer. Enough to trigger an automatic revaluation of the minimum wage? Yes, probably, replies INSEE. Please note, nothing is planned at this stage! But here is the most plausible scenario according to INSEE.
Never seven without eight? Since October 2021, the minimum wage has increased seven times ! In other words, four exceptional increases during the year boosted the minimum wage, for only three “usual” annual increases on January 1st. When is the eighth increase? Probably from summer 2024, according to information provided by INSEE to MoneyVox this Thursday. Thus, in less than 3 years, the minimum wage will have been increased eight times.
These successive increases are in no way a political decision. It’s the law: the formula for calculating the minimum wage is one of the few to be reactive, including during the year, in the event of a very significant increase in prices. Inflation has been galloping for almost 3 years. And the minimum wage follows, in stages.
A possible “revaluation of around 2% of the minimum wage in August 2024”
The formula for exceptional revaluations? It kicks in when the inflation suffered by Lowest 20% of the population (we speak of “first quintile”) progresses by more than 2% compared to the last revaluation of the minimum wagethen the minimum wage automatically increases.
This Thursday, March 14, INSEE unveiled its quarterly economic report. This forecast is included: “In France, the inflationary episode is fading: inflation, in the sense of the consumer price index, fell to +2.9% over one year in February 2024 (according to the ‘provisional estimate) against +6.3% a year earlier and this decline should continue at +2.6% in June’.
“No additional revaluation of the minimum wage in the first half of 2024 apart from that occurring on January 1”
In this note, no mention of a possible revaluation of the minimum wage during the year 2024. MoneyVox asked the question. INSEE confirmed a probable revaluation during the year, then gave us the following estimate: “Our scenario does not include any additional revaluation of the minimum wage in the first half of 2024 apart from that occurring on January 1 (+ 1.13%)”, confirms INSEE initially, before launching into expectations: “Our inflation forecast would lead to a price evolution close to the threshold for automatic revaluation of the minimum wage in June 2024. »
The revaluation would obviously not be immediate, due to the timing of the unveiling of INSEE figures, and the regulatory deadlines: “If the crossing of the threshold materialized on this date [juin 2024]it would result in an increase of around 2% of the minimum wage in August 2024.”
A probable increase… to be confirmed at the beginning of summer
Please note that for the moment this is only an estimate put forward by INSEE, the reference on the subject, but this possible automatic revaluation can only be confirmed in Julyat the time of revealing the final inflation figures for June 2024. And if it becomes clearer, this increase will then have to be the subject of a decree in Official newspaper.
Taxes, RSA, retirement, salary… These increases that await you in 2024 with inflation at almost 5%