Orban is blackmailing the EU again. This time it’s about the 50 billion euro package for Ukraine. However, resistance is forming – especially in the EU Parliament, but also in the Council. Plans are being eagerly made to stop Hungary’s prime minister.
Several institutions of the European Union are served by Viktor Orban. The Hungarian Prime Minister is leaving no stone unturned to make it more difficult for the EU to pursue a coherent foreign policy towards Ukraine. After all, he is a confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Orban not only opposed sanctions packages, but also the start of accession negotiations with Ukraine. Now he is threatening to reject the planned €50 billion in aid to Ukraine in the Council of Heads of State and Government.
But the other 26 member states in the Council are making a plan to initiate the aid, if necessary, without Orban’s consent. There is also resistance in the European Parliament. It passed a resolution to have a lawsuit examined by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) against the EU Commission. The MPs criticize that they had released 10 billion euros in frozen funds to Hungary – in response to Orban’s blackmail in Ukraine politics.
The time to make plans against Orban is running out. The heads of state and government will meet on February 1st to decide on the 50 billion package for Ukraine. They can only pass it unanimously. However, behind the scenes, work is underway to find a way to get around Orban’s blockade. The idea: The remaining 26 member states provide guarantees for the EU budget so that the Commission can take out loans on the capital markets.
Orban’s veto affects the entire EU budget
This method has already proven itself during the financial crisis and the corona pandemic so that the Commission can collect fresh money for the member states. This strategy has also already been used against Orban’s attempts at blackmail, says Monika Hohlmeier, chairwoman of the EU Parliament’s Budget Control Committee, in an interview with ntv.de. “A similar approach had already been chosen for the macro-financial aid for Ukraine in 2022, as Hungary had already blocked the plans back then,” says the CSU politician in an interview with ntv.de. The guarantees from the member states represent suitable protection to ensure that the EU is able to repay the bonds taken out to finance the loans, said Hohlmeier.
However, in order to clear the way for the funds, the national parliaments of all countries involved must agree. The procedure is not only lengthy but also risky. And Ukraine urgently needs new financial injections in the fight against the Russian aggressor. The shortage of weapons and ammunition is being exacerbated by Republicans in the US Congress blocking the release of further aid packages to Ukraine. At the end of December, Ukraine received news from Washington that the last package of military aid was being made available for Kiev. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is therefore cleaning clinics in the EU for Ukraine after increasing German military aid to eight billion euros. Scholz called on his counterparts to “also increase their efforts on behalf of Ukraine.”
With his veto, Orban automatically blocks the increase in the EU’s multiannual financial framework until 2027. The Commission has linked the aid to Ukraine to the planned increase in the budget so that financing is secured for the next four years. However, Orban has made it clear that he rejects this completely. If at all, he only wants to negotiate the funds for the war-torn country on an annual basis. The motive behind it: If Orban is allowed to vote on the funds every year, he can threaten to veto it every year.
Orban himself speaks of blackmail
For Viola von Cramon-Taubadel, who is helping to negotiate the Ukraine package for the EU Parliament, this is the worst option. “Orban could negotiate various wordings into the resolution at the meeting of the Council of Heads of State and Government. He can not only ensure that there must be an annual vote on Ukraine aid, but also that a unanimous decision must be made as to whether In the coming years, EU money from pots such as the Corona Fund can be reallocated for Ukraine,” says the Green MP in an interview with ntv.de. There is therefore great scope for attempts at blackmail. Von Cramon-Taubadel believes it is possible that Orban will once again use his veto as leverage to release funding for his country that has been frozen by the EU. She considers it “not unlikely” that further funds will be paid out to Hungary before the Council meeting in February.
Orban himself makes no secret of the fact that this is exactly what his blockade is about. He said on Hungarian radio that this was “a great opportunity for Hungary to make it clear that it should get what it deserves.” Regarding the frozen funds, he said Hungary was demanding “not half, not a quarter, but everything.” The Commission is still withholding billions from Hungary because the country violates the EU’s democratic principles.
But in December the EU Commission gave the green light for the payment of 10 billion euros to Hungary. The funds had previously been blocked because Orban was dismantling the rule of law in Hungary. The timing was surprising: the release was announced shortly before the Council meeting at which the heads of state and government voted on the start of the EU’s accession negotiations with Ukraine. At that time, Orban also threatened a veto. At the meeting, Scholz finally ushered him out of the room when the decision on accession negotiations was made. This meant that the remaining counterparts were able to agree to the accession negotiations while Orban saved face.
Von der Leyen defends releasing the funds
At the time, Parliament accused the Commission of having bought the negotiated solution with Orban with the 10 billion euros. The commission denied this. The Hungarian government has initiated reforms to improve the rule of law, she replied.
But Parliament does not accept the argument. A broad majority of MPs from the Conservatives, Social Democrats, Liberals, Greens and Left voted in January for a resolution in which Parliament wants to have a lawsuit against the Commission examined by the ECJ. The Legal Affairs Committee and the Parliament’s legal service should investigate the release of the funds to Hungary. If there are indications of violations of EU law, Parliament wants to take the case to the ECJ.
If the Commission releases further funds without the conditions for this being met, Parliament reserves the right to take further political and legal action. This could include, for example, a vote of no confidence, which if successful would require the Commission to resign. On Wednesday, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen commented on the allegations. Hungary passed a law in May 2023 that strengthens the independence of the judiciary and makes political influence on the judiciary more difficult, she said. “That’s what we asked for – and Hungary delivered,” said von der Leyen. However, the mistrust in parliament remains. Critics accuse Hungary of only pushing forward reforms on paper, while Orban continues his campaign against the rule of law.
Opposition members, NGOs and companies continue to complain about corruption
Research by ntv.de last year also hardly leads to the conclusion that anything has improved in Hungary. Klára Dobrev, an opposition leader in the Hungarian parliament, said that the judiciary was harassing her with sham trials and that laws were making it more difficult for her to finance her parties. In addition, Miklós Ligeti, legal chairman of Transparency International Hungary, described how corruption was rampant in Hungary and how Orban’s confidants were lining their pockets with EU money. Finally, German companies also complained that Orban was using illegal methods to bully them out of the country in order to divide up business sectors among his followers. It is precisely these grievances that Parliament is drawing attention to with the resolution.
“The European Commission and also the member states will have to learn that they cannot rely on all member states being pro-European and must draw conclusions from this for their own ability to act,” says CSU MP Hohlmeier. “Viktor Orban has too often succeeded in deceiving the EU, acting against the EU and at the same time profiting financially. That’s an unpleasant mix.”