victory of the pro-Beijing candidate, recognized by the outgoing head of state

The pro-Chinese candidate, Mohamed Muizzu, won the presidential election on Saturday September 30 in the Maldives. The pro-Indian outgoing president, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, admitted defeat. “Congratulations to President-elect Muizzu”he wrote on X (formerly Twitter) after the publication by the electoral commission of the results granting 54.06% of the votes to Mr. Muizzu.

The winner of the presidential election, also mayor of the capital of the Maldives, Malé, promised the nationalist camp to reduce the archipelago’s dependence on India, preferring China. Mr. Muizzu is the first elected mayor of Malé, the capital island, the most populous in the archipelago which is made up of 1,192 coral islets scattered over some 800 kilometers in the Indian Ocean.

Mr. Miuzzu’s victory could lead to a rapprochement with Beijing, in a highly strategic region. A mecca for luxury tourism, this archipelago in the Indian Ocean is located on one of the busiest maritime routes in the world in an area where India and China compete for influence.

The winner of the presidential election, whose party had entered Beijing’s orbit during the mandate of his mentor Abdulla Yameen (2013-2018), notably defended without reservation the financial largesse granted by Beijing within the framework of the “new silk roads”, a gigantic Chinese investment project in developing countries. When he was in Mr. Yameen’s government, Mr. Muizzu was also the spearhead of a bridge project financed by China, at a cost of 200 million dollars, connecting the capital to the country’s main airport.

The first round of the presidential election had already given him a comfortable lead (46.1% against 39.1%) against the outgoing president, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who strove, during his mandate, to improve tense relations with New Delhi. In conceding defeat, Mr. Solih held “to congratulate the population who participated in a democratic and peaceful process”.

Turnout stood at 85% during the second round, during which watchdog Transparency Maldives noted some incidents of “electoral violence”. Police announced they had arrested fourteen people for violating election rules.

Toe the pro-Beijing line

In 2018, Mr. Solih won a surprise victory for the presidency by succeeding Mr. Yameen, who is currently serving an eleven-year prison sentence for corruption and money laundering. He had criticized his predecessor for having pushed the country into a Chinese debt trap by borrowing massively for infrastructure.

At the time, Mr. Yameen’s government’s shift in favor of Beijing alarmed New Delhi, which shares Western concerns about China’s growing assertiveness in the Indian Ocean. Upon coming to power, Mr. Solih quickly acted to restore the archipelago’s relations with New Delhi, inviting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend his inauguration and allowing its small military presence to be strengthened. During his re-election campaign, he sought to rally support by campaigning on local issues such as housing.

Mr. Muizzu’s party had focused the debate on diplomacy by criticizing Mr. Solih’s rapprochement with India, a country with disproportionate political and economic weight in the Maldives and the object of long-standing disaffection. His PPM party and activist groups have regularly staged protests demanding a reduction in Indian influence in the Muslim nation.

During the campaign, Mr. Muizzu’s allies said his election would help rid the country of foreign interference. Mr. Muizzu has, however, openly expressed his plans to follow the pro-Beijing line of his mentor Yameen. “We look forward to returning to government in 2023 (…) to write a new chapter of strong ties between our two countries”he said during a meeting with members of the Chinese Communist Party last year.

During the campaign, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ahmed Shaheed, however assured Agence France-Presse that the next president “will have to balance the interests of India and China”. ‘You cannot reject India and survive’he warned.