According to the plans of the Federal Council, the corona measures will end at the beginning of April. Now the virus is once again developing more unpredictably than expected, and there is also war in Europe. The first scientists are therefore advocating waiting with the final opening steps.
Masks are compulsory on public transport. Will that remain the case after April 1st?
It has been almost a month since the Federal Council in Switzerland lifted almost all corona measures. Since then, only the obligation to wear masks in public transport and in health facilities and the isolation of those who have tested positive have applied.
The lifting of all restrictions has already been anticipated. According to the government, in just over two weeks – on April 1st – the “Covid-19 ordinance special situation” should expire, and Switzerland would be back to normal after around two years of the pandemic.
“The pandemic is not over yet”
Now, however, virus experts are resisting dropping all measures too quickly. The Federal Council should wait with further opening steps, says the epidemiologist Marcel Salathé in an interview with the Tamedia newspapers. The corona pandemic is not over yet. And he fears that the virus will surprise the world a few more times.
Mortality and the hospitalization rate are low thanks to vaccination and the progressive immunization of society and the risk of dying from corona is the same or less than with normal flu. But the virus is spreading so rapidly that deaths and hospital admissions are likely to increase again, explains Salathé. In addition, the long-term consequences of an infection are not yet known. Studies showed that Covid infection could increase the risk of cardiovascular disease. Against this backdrop, he advises caution.
In fact, the infections have increased significantly in recent weeks. According to the Federal Office of Public Health (BAG), the 7-day average was recently more than 70 percent above the last low of February 23. And the trend in hospital admissions, which had been declining until recently, seems to have reversed.
An increase in the number of cases had been expected given the lack of measures; but the virus is currently spreading at an amazing rate. Since far less has been tested since mid-February, the actual number of infections is likely to be significantly higher than that shown in the official statistics. More than half of those who get tested are now positive. This suggests a high number of unreported cases.
War and pandemic: a bad combination
Salathé is not the only one to warn of further easing steps that cannot be reversed so quickly. The virologist Isabelle Eckerle, who works in Geneva, also urges caution. Eckerle writes that it has rarely seemed more difficult to assess the medium-term future with Sars-CoV-2 than it is at the moment Twitter. She refers to the high evolutionary dynamics of the virus. Sub-variants at Omikron were replaced and combined with earlier variants. The findings of chronic infections are also increasing.
future in #SARS-CoV-2 #COVID19: It has seldom seemed more difficult to face the medium-term future #SARS-CoV-2 estimated than at the moment. Continued high evolutionary dynamics on the part of the virus: #Omicron BA.2 supersedes BA.1, further diversification of BA.2, more reports
— Isabella Eckerle (@EckerleIsabella) March 11, 2022
According to Eckerle, the situation is now much more complex than the mere question of whether intensive care beds are free or occupied. The war in Europe should not be ignored either, as the virologist emphasizes. War events and at the same time an ongoing pandemic are really new territory and do not give hope for anything good. Not only because of Corona, but also because of the risk of other infectious diseases.
What happens on April 1st?
The next two weeks will show how the Federal Council will react to these warnings. Because the abolition of all measures is not yet definitive. in the Federal Council communiqué on the opening timetable from mid-February, explicit reference is made to the epidemiological situation. The “Covid-19 regulation special situation” will expire if the epidemiological situation develops “as expected”.
And what does “as expected” mean in concrete terms? This is not entirely clear insofar as it is not written down anywhere. However, the statements by Federal Councilor Alain Berset and Federal President Ignazio Cassis two weeks ago allow the interpretation that the decision to phase out the infection process was relatively optimistic.
You can see a positive dynamic that continues, said Berset at the time. In addition, it has become unlikely that the hospitals will be overloaded and there are only a few severe cases. Cassis was also confident, especially with a view to the upcoming spring.
Despite the sharp increase in the number of cases, nothing has officially changed in this assessment. When specifically asked about the strategy of the Federal Council, Health Minister Berset emphasized just a few days ago that the situation was completely within the scope of what was to be expected after most of the measures had been lifted.
The Science Task Force also seems to share the confidence of being able to return to normality. In any case, her advisory mandate will end early at the end of March – according to the Federal Council at her own request. Isabelle Eckerle is not a member of the board, Marcel Salathé resigned over a year ago.