According to the Federal Council’s plans from mid-February, the corona measures will end at the beginning of April. Now the virus is once again developing more unpredictably than expected, and there is also war in Europe. The first scientists are therefore advocating waiting with the final opening steps.
Masks are compulsory on public transport. Will that remain the case after April 1st?
It has been almost a month since the Federal Council in Switzerland lifted almost all corona measures. Since then, only the obligation to wear masks in public transport and in health facilities and the isolation of those who have tested positive have applied.
The lifting of all restrictions has already been anticipated. According to the government, in just over two weeks – on April 1st – the “Covid-19 ordinance special situation” should expire, and Switzerland would be back to normal after around two years of the pandemic.
“The pandemic is not over yet”
Now, however, virus experts are resisting dropping all measures too quickly. The Federal Council should wait with further opening steps, says the epidemiologist Marcel Salathé in an interview with the Tamedia newspapers. The corona pandemic is not over yet. And he fears that the virus will surprise the world a few more times.
Mortality and the hospitalization rate are low thanks to vaccination and the progressive immunization of society, and the risk of dying from corona is the same or less than with normal flu. But the virus is spreading so rapidly that deaths and hospital admissions are likely to increase again, explains Salathé. In addition, the long-term consequences of an infection are not yet known. Studies showed that Covid infection could increase the risk of cardiovascular disease. Against this background, he advises caution.
In fact, the infections have increased significantly in recent weeks. According to the Federal Office of Public Health (BAG), the 7-day average was recently more than 70% above the last low of February 23.
An increase in the number of cases had been expected given the lack of measures; but the virus is spreading surprisingly fast at the moment. Since far less has been tested since mid-February, the numbers are likely to be significantly higher than those shown in the official statistics. More than half of those who get tested are now positive. This suggests a high number of unreported cases.
War and pandemic: a bad combination
Salathé is not the only one to warn of further easing steps that cannot be reversed so quickly. The virologist Isabelle Eckerle, who works in Geneva, also urges caution. Eckerle writes that it has rarely seemed more difficult to assess the medium-term future with Sars-CoV-2 than it is at the moment Twitter. She refers to the high evolutionary dynamics of the virus. Sub-variants at Omikron were replaced and combined with earlier variants. The findings of chronic infections are also increasing.
future in #SARS-CoV-2 #COVID19: It has seldom seemed more difficult to face the medium-term future #SARS-CoV-2 estimated than at the moment. Continued high evolutionary dynamics on the part of the virus: #Omicron BA.2 supersedes BA.1, further diversification of BA.2, more reports
— Isabella Eckerle (@EckerleIsabella) March 11, 2022
According to Eckerle, the situation is now much more complex than the mere question of whether intensive care beds are free or occupied. According to Eckerle, the war in Europe should not be ignored either. War events and at the same time an ongoing pandemic are really new territory and certainly do not give hope for anything good. Not only because of Corona, but also because of the risk of other infectious diseases.
What happens on April 1st?
The next two weeks will show how the Federal Council will react to these warnings. Because the abolition of all measures is not yet definitive. in the Federal Council communiqué on the opening timetable from mid-February, explicit reference is made to the epidemiological situation. The Covid 19 special situation regulation will expire if “the epidemiological situation develops as expected”.
And what does “as expected” mean in concrete terms? This is not entirely clear insofar as it is not written down anywhere. However, the statements made by Federal Councilor Alain Berset and Federal President Ignazio Cassis at the media conference allow the interpretation that two weeks ago people were still relatively optimistic about the infection process.
If the estimates are correct and ten percent of the population are actually infected each week, then the virus will be over in Switzerland by the end of March, Berset calculated at the time. One must assume a very high immunity in the population. Cassis was also confident: The epidemiological situation is favorable and the situation in the hospitals is stable. The trend of improvement is likely to continue as spring approaches.
However, the Federal Council is not the only one who was still confident a month ago that the pandemic had been overcome. The advisory mandate of the Science Task Force was terminated prematurely at the end of March – according to the Federal Council at their request. Isabelle Eckerle is not a member of this task force, Marcel Salathé resigned over a year ago.