by Guy Faulconbridge and Andrew Osborn
MOSCOW/LONDON (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to end the war in Ukraine under a negotiated ceasefire that ratifies the current front lines, four Russian sources told Reuters.
If Kyiv and the West remained closed to discussion, the Kremlin leader would be determined to continue the military operation begun in February 2022, they added.
According to three of these sources, familiar with the discussions in Vladimir Putin’s entourage, the latter expressed his frustration to some advisers over the refusal of Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky to initiate talks. He would also mention maneuvers, supported according to him by the West, to thwart any negotiations.
“Putin can fight as long as it takes, but he is also ready for a ceasefire – to ‘freeze’ the war,” said Reuters’ fourth caller, a senior Russian source who worked with Vladimir Putin and is aware of the exchanges in the Kremlin.
Like the other people cited in this dispatch, the advisor spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the issue.
Reuters spoke to a total of five people who work or have worked with Vladimir Putin at a high level in politics and business.
The fifth source made no comments regarding a potential end to the war on the current front lines.
In response to a request for comment, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Kremlin leader had repeatedly made clear that Russia was open to dialogue to achieve its goals, saying the country did not want to not an “eternal war”.
Ukraine’s foreign and defense ministries did not respond to Reuters’ questions.
Last week’s appointment of economist Andrei Beloussov as head of the Defense Ministry, replacing Sergei Shoigu, was seen by Western analysts as the Kremlin’s desire to embark on the path of war economy for a long-intensity conflict.
ZELENSKY INFLEXIBLE
However, sources interviewed by Reuters believe that Vladimir Putin, re-elected on March 17 for a new six-year term, would prefer to take advantage of the current dynamic, marked by the advances of the Russian army, to put an end to the war. They did not comment on the appointment of Andrei Beloussov.
The head of the Kremlin considers that the territorial gains of the Russian army to date – the “new realities on the ground” – could legitimize the announcement of a victory in the eyes of the Russian public, according to two of the sources.
Continuing further, underline three sources, would require a new mobilization, a scenario that Vladimir Putin refuses, according to a source, given his drop in popularity after the first mobilization decreed in September 2022.
However, the prospect of a ceasefire, if that is the Russian president’s wish, seems distant.
Volodimir Zelensky has repeatedly stated that peace negotiations on Vladimir Putin’s terms are not possible.
The Ukrainian president is committed to retaking the territories annexed by Russia, notably Crimea which came under Russian control in 2014. He also signed a decree in 2022 officially declaring any negotiations with Vladimir Putin “impossible”.
One of the sources judges that no agreement can be concluded as long as Volodimir Zelensky is in power, unless Russia “bypasses” him and negotiates directly with Washington.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who visited Kyiv last week, told reporters that he did not think Putin was interested in serious negotiations.
A spokesperson for the US State Department, contacted by Reuters, recalled that any peace initiative should respect “the territorial integrity of Ukraine, within its internationally recognized borders”.
“The Kremlin has not yet shown significant interest in ending the war, quite the contrary,” he said.
Switzerland is hosting a “peace conference” in Ukraine on June 15 and 16, to which Russia is not invited. Moscow has argued that any discussions would be groundless in its absence.
TERRITORIAL “FREEZE”
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kouleba said on Friday that the Russians’ intention to negotiate a ceasefire was aimed at compromising the June conference.
“We are ready for discussion. We have never refused,” assured Vladimir Putin during his recent visit to China.
Last February, three Russian sources told Reuters that the United States had rejected a Russian ceasefire proposal accompanied by a territorial “freeze”.
The “freezing” of current positions on Ukrainian territory is non-negotiable for Putin, according to sources contacted by Reuters. He would now be ready to seal a ceasefire on this basis, four of them confirm.
“Putin will say that we won, that NATO attacked us and that we kept our sovereignty, that we have a land corridor to Crimea, which is true,” observes one of them.
Russia occupies a large part of the four eastern and southern Ukrainian oblasts – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson – annexed in September 2022 following referendums organized by Russian forces in the occupied areas.
Dmitry Peskov declared that Russia ruled out returning these territories.
Russian forces control about 18% of Ukraine’s territory and have advanced this month into the Kharkiv region in the northeast.
“Russia will continue to move forward” to the point of pushing Volodimir Zelensky into negotiations, believes the source who worked with Vladimir Putin.
The Russian president expects that Ukraine will not have sufficient means to continue the war despite Western efforts, she said.
(Reporting Guy Faulconbridge in Moscow and Andrew Osborn in London; French version Stéphanie Hamel and Blandine Hénault, edited by Sophie Louet)
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