After a long dispute, the EU Commission has given the green light for the payment of the Corona aid money to Poland. There is great dissatisfaction in Brussels, while the government in Warsaw sees its course confirmed. However, conditions still have to be met before the money can flow.
With the release of EU money from the recovery fund for Poland, Ursula von der Leyen walks a fine line between geopolitics and the rule of law.
It’s not every day that two members of the European Commission rebel against their own body. Deputy Commission President Frans Timmermans and Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager did not want to say yes to the approval of the Polish reconstruction plan, to which the payment of around 35 million euros is linked. They voted against the Commission’s decision on Wednesday – an unprecedented process in Brussels.
The members of the European Parliament also foamed when the release of the Corona funds became public. Greens, Liberals and Social Democrats spoke of a betrayal of European values. After all, the consensus between the EU institutions has been that Warsaw should only be accommodated in approving the recovery plan if Poland’s ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) reverses key parts of its judicial reforms.
Realpolitik prevails
However, von der Leyen was already content with the decision to abolish the controversial disciplinary chamber by the Polish lower house last week as a precondition for the unblocking of the funds. During her visit to Warsaw on Thursday, the President of the Commission and Poland’s Heads of State and Government emphasized what they have in common.
Against the background of the threat from Russia, according to the three politicians, the EU states must stand together and cooperate on modernization and greening. When it came to the rule of law, both sides praised the “constructive negotiations” that made von der Leyen’s conciliatory visit possible in the first place.
The forces that have prevailed are those who are pragmatic in view of the changed realities in the east of the continent. The more moderate circles within the PiS have realized that without the billions from Brussels they can hardly cope with the strains of the Ukraine war and the economic downturn. Victory in next year’s parliamentary elections is also a long way off without money. They therefore agreed to a precarious compromise as did von der Leyen.
In order to actually receive a first tranche of around 4 billion euros in September, Poland’s parliament must, in addition to abolishing the disciplinary chamber, depoliticize the system for disciplining judges and create a regulation by the end of June to reinstate and compensate unlawfully dismissed magistrates.
Uncertain future path
Last week, the House of Commons passed a Presidential Bill abolishing the Disciplinary Board and replacing it with a “Professional Responsibility Board.” The proposal, supported by the PiS, only came about after four months of back and forth with the junior partner, a small party led by Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro – and it still leaves many questions unanswered.
This is how critics and the opposition, who voted unanimously against the bill, see the change as cosmetic. The new chamber will continue to be politically determined – now simply by the President instead of the Minister of Justice. It is to decide whether suspended judges are reinstated. They must actively submit an application for this. A provision for disciplining magistrates, referred to by the opposition as a “gag law”, also remains valid. The legality of many of the new judges installed in the last six years is left out.
While Poland’s government offensively takes the view that it has done its homework with the law, von der Leyen spoke of a step that others would have to follow in order to reach the agreed “milestones”. With opposition to her plans in the EU Commission and European Parliament, she will remain under pressure to keep a close eye on future payouts. It also remains to be seen whether all member states will support their course unreservedly.
In Brussels, it is pointed out that funds paid out can also be reclaimed or other funds may be withheld if Warsaw should decide to return to the old policy at a later date.
This danger cannot be completely ruled out, as the PiS has invested enormous political capital in judicial reform over the past six years. Any further concessions to Brussels will also lead to conflicts with Ziobro in the right-wing camp, while the opposition will again describe them as not going far enough. So there is also unrest in Warsaw in the coming months.