What future for Wagner in Africa? More than two weeks after the mutiny of the group of mercenaries, Moscow has begun on Russian soil the reconfiguration of the multifaceted empire – security, political and economic – built by Yevgueni Prigojine since the mid-2010s. Many questions remain, however, about the fate that awaits Wagner’s activities in Africa, a valuable strategic presence that the Kremlin has no objective interest in questioning.
At this stage, nothing says that the overhaul underway in Moscow will extend to Bangui or Bamako. ” The Wagner organization, even with a name change, should be maintained in Africa in the near future “, anticipates John Lechner, an independent researcher working on the group.
As early as June 26, the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, had moreover announced that the work of“instructors” of the “military” Russians present in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali “would continue”, a way of reassuring these two States with which cooperation with Wagner is the most extensive. But in what form? Friday, June 30, the head of Russian diplomacy left all options open, stating that it was first up to African governments to “to continue or not” the type of ” cooperation “ already engaged with Wagner.
In view of the ongoing takeover in Moscow, the room for maneuver for Mali and the CAR looks in fact to be narrow. The speed with which Bangui, eager to dispel all doubt, proclaimed his loyalty to Vladimir Putin illustrated this well. ” We have never had any contact with private military companies “, declares to the World Sylvie Baïpo Témon, the Central African Minister of Foreign Affairs, without really convincing when we know Wagner’s roots in the CAR.
Much more than a “defense agreement”
” The Defense Agreementshe adds, was signed between the defense ministers of the Central African Republic and the Russian Federation “, while insisting on the fact that the rebellion of Mr. Prigojine had no “no impact” in Bangui.
Wagner’s presence in the CAR, Mali or Sudan is not, however, limited to a “defense agreement”. It combines security offers (fights against armed rebellions or presidential guard), political and electoral advice, agit-prop techniques via troll factories, exploitation of resources (mines, wood) and industrial production (beer), not to mention networks financial transiting notably through the United Arab Emirates. ” This horizontal integration gives Wagner its unique character “, underlines an international observer following the activities of the group in Africa.
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