“Waking model of rule” – Is a revolution brewing in Iran? – News


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It has been almost a month since Mahsa Amini died. Is Iran in a Revolution? Two experts classify.

It is the crux of the revolution: Actually, one is only sure in retrospect that it took place. This was the case in France at the end of the 18th century and in Russia at the beginning of the 20th century. Predicting a revolution: actually an impossibility.

Legend:

About four weeks ago, riots broke out in Iran, here is a picture from the capital Tehran. They continue to this day.

Reuters

Elham Manea says the same thing when she looks at current events in Iran. The politics professor, who teaches at the University of Zurich, says: “I can’t look into the crystal ball. But one thing is clear to me: the current events are special.” It is quite possible that one is in a “pre-revolutionary phase”.

An uprising from below

Hans-Lukas Kieser is also a connoisseur of the region. The Middle East historian, who researches and teaches at the University of Zurich and the University of Newcastle in Australia, says: “We can currently observe various aspects that make up a revolution in Iran.”

Uprisings in Iran: A New Form of Revolution?


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Protest, uprising, rebellion, revolution: social upheavals, such as are currently being strongly suggested in Iran, are often associated with these buzzwords. However, their exact meanings are often not entirely clear.

This applies above all to the revolution, because the term is not used uniformly in the social sciences either. The prerequisites seem to be the intersection of the various definitions. Roughly speaking, this is what a revolution needs three characteristics that must be given: a disharmony between the political and social system, an ideological alienation of society from the state and the simultaneous stubborn intransigence of the government. This is accompanied by society’s perception that the government is no longer believed to be capable of credible reforms – something that is currently the case in Iran.

Hans-Lukas Kieser, Middle East historian at the University of Zurich, has noticed interesting developments over the past few decades, especially in the second point: “The big ideologies, I mean communism, for example, but also Turkish Kemalism or the current Islamism in Iran , have had their day.»

People today are concerned with core values ​​such as freedom and justice. The motto of the Iranian uprisings – women, life, freedom – is not surprising in this context. Kieser emphasizes: “People want a better life. And that means, above all, more democracy, not championing an ideology.”

For example, there is a cultural gap between the regime and the population, a bad economic situation and widespread dissatisfaction. Above all, however, Kieser says: The uprisings came from below – and that is striking – something that also distinguished the French Revolution, for example: “That is a great strength of the movement,” says Kieser.

A banner is shown. On it: A pair of scissors cutting the rainbow-colored hair. My hair, my choice.

Legend:

Support for the Iranian uprising is palpable around the world. Here a banner at a demonstration in Berlin.

KEYSTONE/MARKUS SCHREIBER

Manea also emphasizes this point, because it would distinguish the current events from uprisings like the “green movement” of 2009 or the protests of 2019. “For the first time since the establishment of the current regime, we are seeing how different social groups are pulling together.” No matter whether middle class, workers, students or professors: never before has there been such unity against the regime in society.

Parallels to the Arab Spring

And above all: the women. With Mahsa Amini, the death of a Kurdish woman was what triggered the events. Because that too is needed for a revolution, a moment that will go down in history as a symbol of the break with the regime.

Mahsa Amini's face on an Iranian newspaper.

Legend:

The death of the Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini has become a symbol of the uprisings.

Reuters

This was also the case in 2010, when the Tunisian greengrocer Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire, ushering in the Arab Spring.

Uprisings in Iran: The world is watching closely


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Iran is an important geopolitical entity. Many countries are therefore watching the current uprisings. Partly also worrying because they see their own power structures in danger. Because Iran not only plays an important role in the Middle East, but also in world politics.

First of all, Saudi Arabia should be mentioned, says Elham Manea, associate professor at the University of Zurich: “We are observing a new, young leadership that is slowly distancing itself from Wahhabism – an extremely conservative form of Islam.” This reorientation is symbolic of the retreat of political Islam, although it should not be ignored that the Saudi Arabian government is constantly violating human rights.

Crisis anti-democratic countries

However, because other important actors such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Shiite militias in Iraq or the Houthi rebels in Yemen were based on similar religious ideologies, these countries looked nervously at the developments in Iran, Manea explains and notes: “The survival of these groups is dependent on Iranian support.”

But the events in Iran do not only have consequences for the Middle East. They are also relevant for world politics. Hans-Lukas Kieser, Middle East historian from the University of Zurich, says: “We can observe a weakening of the three anti-democratic states.” In addition to Russia, which is coming under more and more pressure in the war in Ukraine, and Iran, he also means Turkey. According to Kieser, the economy and political Islam are also in serious trouble there, even if the Ukraine crisis is currently giving Turkey a tailwind.

“Even if these three states have differences, they support each other,” explains Kieser. This had become obvious despite the differences, for example in the Syrian war and in the actions against Kurds in northern Iraq. Kieser says: “If one of these anti-democratic governments collapses, it will affect the whole world.”

Manea sees parallels here. «The brutal death of Mahsa Amini captured a feeling. Women no longer want to be subjected to discrimination. And men don’t want this for their wives, mothers and sisters either.” The attack on the headscarf is therefore tantamount to an attack on the regime.

«The ideology of the regime has died»

However, both are still careful not to describe the current events as a revolution. Kieser names two reservations: “On the one hand, the movement should now find a way to organize itself. On the other hand, the role of the military is crucial.” If this strengthens the back of the movement or at least behaves neutrally, a revolution could come about. Manea also emphasizes these aspects.

A revolution can build up over several years.

And what if the regime crushed the uprisings like in 2009, 2018 or 2019? Kieser says: “A revolution can build up over several years.” So one should not fall victim to the fallacy of equating a possible end to these uprisings with the end of a revolution. For Kieser it is clear: “The ideology represented by the Iranian regime is dead.” And Manea also says: “The model of rule is faltering.”

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