by Claude Chendjou
PARIS (Reuters) – Wall Street is expected to fall on Wednesday for a third consecutive session, while the main European stock markets, apart from London, are attempting a mid-term rebound after encouraging inflation figures in the euro zone.
Futures on New York indices signal an opening on Wall Street down 0.06% for the Dow Jones, 0.20% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 and 0.33% for the Nasdaq the day after a session in the red marked by a fall of almost 5% for Tesla.
In Paris, the CAC 40 rose 0.18% to 8,144.66 around 11:10 GMT. In Frankfurt, the Dax advances 0.25%. In London, the FTSE, weighed down in particular by the health sector, fell further, by 0.36%, after a drop of 0.22% on Tuesday.
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The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index rebounded by 0.01%, the Eurozone EuroStoxx 50 by 0.35%, while the Stoxx 600 was stable (-0.02%).
Investors have been on the defensive since macroeconomic indicators (ISM manufacturing index, Jolts employment report) in the United States have shown a still vigorous economy, which should not encourage the Federal Reserve to lower its interest rates. quickly.
The ADP employment survey and the ISM services index in the United States which will be published today could reinforce the aversion towards risky assets since the Reuters consensus forecasts figures to rise again while the Fed is working to curb demand.
On the bond market, US long-term yields are stable, while in the euro zone, a slight easing is beginning after a sharp increase the day before.
The weakness of equity gains in Europe, however, reflects the fragility of the rebound. This rebound is partly supported by inflation figures in the euro zone which show a more marked slowdown than expected in March, with a consumer price index at 2.4% over one year, after 2.6% in FEBRUARY.
This could encourage the European Central Bank (ECB), which meets next week, to reinforce its message for a rate cut this year.
According to the governor of the Austrian central bank, Robert Holzmann, the ECB could begin its monetary easing as early as June, because inflation could fall faster than expected. The Frankfurt institute’s decision will, however, depend on that taken by the Fed on the same date, he added.
The probability of a Fed rate cut in June is currently assessed at 62%, compared to almost 70% last week, according to CME Group’s FedWatch barometer.
VALUES TO FOLLOW AT WALL STREET
Intel falls 4.7% in pre-market trading as the semiconductor maker reports an operating loss of $7 billion in 2023 for its foundry business compared to a loss of $5.2 billion the previous year.
VALUES IN EUROPE
On a sectoral level, compartments sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates such as real estate (-0.32%), banks (+0.99%) and new technologies (+0.19%) recorded the greater variations.
In Paris, Nexity gained 3.6% after finalizing the sale of its property administration activities to Bridgepoint.
Soitec fell 1.50%, Morgan Stanley having gone from “overweight” to “online weighting” on the value.
In Zurich, Swiss Re fell 1.95% after the reinsurer announced the promotion of Andreas Berger to the position of general director of the group from July, replacing Christian Mumenthaler.
In Frankfurt, Infineon rose 2.58% thanks to Morgan Stanley’s recommendation to “overweight” the semiconductor manufacturer.
RATE
The yield on the ten-year German Bund fell by 4.4 basis points, to 2.363% after an increase of almost 12 points the day before.
That of US Treasury bonds of the same maturity is stable, at 4.3632% after a cumulative increase of almost 15 points on Monday and Tuesday.
CHANGES
The dollar index is almost stable (-0.01%) on Wednesday but is at its highest level in more than four months.
Against the Japanese currency, the greenback is trading at 151.7 yen, despite the threat of intervention by the Japanese authorities to strengthen the yen.
The euro is up 0.07% to 1.0775 per dollar and the pound sterling is trading at 1.2575 dollars (-0.02%).
OIL
Oil prices continue to rise against a backdrop of increased geopolitical risk: Brent gained 0.74% to 89.58 dollars per barrel and American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) also advanced 0.74% to 85, 78 dollars.
(Writing by Claude Chendjou, edited by Kate Entringer)
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