(CercleFinance.com) – Wall Street should open on an indecisive note on Thursday, the latest indicators on the job market having revived fears that the Federal Reserve will refrain from lowering its rates in March.
Half an hour before the opening, the ‘futures’ contract on the Dow Jones index advanced by 0.2% but that on the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.4%, announcing an uncertain start to the session.
According to the monthly survey published by ADP, the private sector in the United States generated 164,000 new jobs in December, a figure both higher than the consensus (120,000) and that of the previous month (103,000).
The Department of Labor reported, for its part, 202,000 new registrations for unemployment benefits in the United States during the week of December 25, a figure down by 18,000 compared to the previous week.
From a market perspective, this strong data – which speaks to the strength of the jobs market – reinforces the sentiment that Fed rates are likely to remain at their current levels for the immediate future.
The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the central bank has increased to 60% today, compared to 96% at the start of the week, according to the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool.
In the bond compartment, Treasury yields are starting to rise again, with the ten-year yield once again approaching the psychological threshold of 4%.
The dollar confirms its recent bout of weakness, with the euro attempting to return to contact with 1.0950, while the oil market confirms its favorable direction as the release of crude stocks approaches.
Faced with the disruptions affecting maritime trade, at the Panama Canal and in the Red Sea, American light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) increased by 1% to 73.4 dollars.
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