(CercleFinance.com) – Wall Street has accelerated upwards in the last hour in the wake of ‘tech’: the S&P500 gains +0.85% to 4,510, it has accumulated +2.6% since Monday, + 17.5% since January 1, it is back to its levels of early April 2022, less than 1% from the resistance at 4.545 at the end of March 2022.
A new bull run with managers ‘running after the paper’ as the ‘VIX’ fell back in session to touch 13, flirting with its best annual levels: an evaporation of ‘risk’ largely inspired by the -20Pts easing in yields on 48-hour T-Bonds, thanks to a resurgence of expectations of an easing of the Fed’s strategy in the face of inflation which is contracting much more sharply than expected.
The drop in rates is traditionally favorable to ‘technos’ and the Nasdaq composite climbs by +1.6% 14,141, its highest for 1 year: it has already gained +3.6% in 4 sessions and crossed the +35% mark annual… but the Nasdaq-100 surpasses it with +1.7% (+4% in 4 sessions) and +42.4% since January 1.
It was the title Alphabet which served as the locomotive with +4.7%, following a well-received reshuffle of the management team.
Nvidia once again stood out with a jump of +5% to $460 (+205% annual), Qualcomm took +3.7%, Cadence Design +2.9%, Palo-Alto +2.7% .
The ‘small caps’ have not been unworthy with the Russel-2000 which takes +0.9% to 1.951Pts,
The Dow Jones industrials are largely neglected, notably the defensive Walgreen with -2% and the oil companies Exxon and Chevron (-1.3%) which weigh down the historical index.
Within the S&P500, it was the airlines that held back the bullish rally.
Exporters, on the other hand, were supported by the fall of the dollar, which is taking an inexorable turn (worst week since last October), with the breakout of the main medium-term supports initiated on Wednesday, and largely confirmed on Thursday.
The Dollar Index is sinking below the ‘100’ level (at 0.9997), the lowest since March 2022: it is approaching the former resistance of the 99 of March 2020 and September 2019.
The greenback is weakened by the conviction that the FED will not need to raise its rates one last time in mid-September (the consensus on a ‘repo’ raised to 5.75% fell in 48 hours from 50% to less than 15% ).
‘While the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates again at the end of this month, these data support our view that this should be the last hike’, Commerzbank reacted after this publication.
The fall in inflation in the United States is surprisingly rapid (it notably reflects the spectacular decline in fuel prices) and after a CPI of +3%, the Department of Labor published producer prices in the United States in increase of only 0.1% in June (against +0.9% in May) and 2.6% excluding food (against +2.8% in May).
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