War in Ukraine: what to remember on the 488th day of the Russian invasion

Belarus announced the arrival on Tuesday of the boss of the paramilitary group Wagner, Evguéni Prigojine, as part of an agreement that ended his rebellion in Russia where Vladimir Putin rejoiced to have avoided a “civil war”. If the shock wave of the revolt led by the men of this ex-ally of Vladimir Putin remains to be measured, the Kremlin has already denied that the Russian president emerged weakened from this crisis, yet the worst in addition to two decades of reign.

A strike on a restaurant in Kramatorsk, two dead and 22 injured

At least three people were killed and 42 injured on Tuesday in a Russian rocket strike that hit a popular restaurant in central Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine, authorities said. “The bodies of three deceased persons, including a minor born in 2008, have been excavated from the rubble. Among the injured is a child born in 2022,” the Interior Ministry said on Telegram.

Ukraine’s Emergency Situations Service reported on Telegram that 42 people were injured in the strike that destroyed the Ria Pizza restaurant, an establishment popular with journalists and the military. According to the Ukrainian police, Russia fired two S-300 surface-to-air rockets on this city of 150,000 inhabitants before the war, the only large agglomeration still under Ukrainian control in the east.

Prigozhin arrived in Belarus, according to President Lukashenko

According to Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, Yevgeny Prigozhin has arrived or is about to arrive in Belarus: “Prigozhin is already traveling by plane. Yes, indeed, he is in Belarus today,” he said. he said in an ambiguous statement reported by the official Belta news agency. Belarusian media reported that a private jet belonging to Yevgeny Prigozhin landed in Minsk on Tuesday morning.

The tempestuous boss of Wagner had evaporated since announcing the end of his rebellion on Saturday evening, after 24 hours of chaos which saw his men seize military bases and march on Moscow, before suddenly turning around. .

Vladimir Putin, who is now seeking to overcome this serious crisis, on Tuesday thanked the soldiers who, according to him, prevented a “civil war” from occurring. “You opposed these unrest, the result of which would inevitably have been chaos,” Vladimir Putin greeted during a ceremony inside the Kremlin. Seriously, with his head bowed, the Russian president then observed a minute of silence in tribute to army pilots killed by the mutineers while they “performed their duty with honor”.

A future transfer of Wagner’s heavy weapons to the Russian army?

Earlier, the Russian Defense Ministry, a pet peeve of the Wagner Group, announced that “preparations (were) underway for the transfer of Wagner’s heavy military equipment to active units of the regular” armed forces. Such a measure seems intended to neutralize the Wagner group, a paramilitary organization which was until then responsible for carrying out the base works of the Kremlin in Ukraine, Syria and in several African countries.

While Russian authorities once denied any connection to Wagner, Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that the state had “completely funded” this private army, paying it nearly a billion euros over the past year.

Lukashenko believes Wagner’s rebellion resulted from mismanagement of rivalries

On Monday evening, the Russian president angrily denounced a “treason” by Yevgeny Prigojine, while ensuring that members of Wagner could join the regular army or go to Belarus, whose leader served as mediator to stop the crisis. Implicitly criticizing Vladimir Putin, Alexander Lukashenko believed that the rebellion was the result of mismanagement of the rivalries between Wagner and the Russian army which have grown steadily since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. “The situation escaped us,” he said.

The Belarusian leader also assured that he had advised Vladimir Putin not to “kill” Yevgeny Prigojine, and considered that Belarus could benefit from the “experience” of Wagner’s fighters who will come to take refuge there.

Vladimir Putin weakened?

Several Western leaders and analysts believe that Vladimir Putin is coming out of this crisis greatly weakened. With his offensive against Ukraine, “Putin is also endangering the security of his own country”, said Tuesday the head of German diplomacy Annalena Baerbock. On the contrary, the rebellion led society to “consolidate around the president”, assured the Kremlin. “The army and the people were not (on) the side” of the mutineers, added Vladimir Putin.

In an audio message broadcast on Monday, Yevgeny Prigojine denied having tried to “overthrow power”, claiming only to want to “save” his group which was threatened with being absorbed by the regular army.

Charges dropped against Wagner

Sign in any case that an agreement seems to have been reached between Evguéni Prigojine and the Kremlin, the security services (FSB) announced Tuesday the abandonment of the proceedings against Wagner for “armed mutiny”. This leniency, despite the death of an unknown number of army pilots admitted by Vladimir Putin, contrasts with the relentless repression aimed at opponents and anonymous people denouncing the military offensive in Ukraine.

For many analysts, the aborted rebellion of the Wagner group has highlighted the weaknesses of Vladimir Putin’s regime and his staff in the face of heavily armed men. Drawing lessons, the leader of the Russian National Guard, one of the formations responsible for state security, announced Tuesday that it would be equipped with tanks.

Some analysts also believe that this crisis could weaken Russian forces in Ukraine and benefit kyiv in its counter-offensive. On Tuesday, Vladimir Putin claimed that he “did not have to withdraw combat units from the ‘special military operation’ area and redeploy them to Russia during the mutiny. Moreover, as the conflict continues , Pope Francis’ envoy for peace in Ukraine, Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, is due to visit Moscow on Wednesday and Thursday, according to the Vatican.