Warns of 500 Covid deaths a day
Criticism of Lauterbach’s death forecast is getting louder
2/10/2022, 9:48 p.m
Federal Minister of Health Lauterbach dampened hopes of immediate easing by warning that Germany would have to expect a sharp increase in the number of deaths in this case. However, politicians and virologists counter that he is fueling fear with such future scenarios.
Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach met with criticism with his forecast that Germany would have to fear up to 500 corona deaths per day if the pandemic measures were relaxed prematurely. Several politicians as well as some virologists are calling for the restrictions to end in the near future. The strongest argument is the fact that, according to the CEO of the German Hospital Society, Gerald Gass, the clinics are no longer threatened with overburdening. Other physicians, on the other hand, urge caution, since the infection process due to the omicron variant could develop differently than in previous corona waves.
Lauterbach had warned on Tuesday evening in the ZDF “heute journal” with reference to opening steps at the peak of the omicron wave as in Israel, in Germany there would then be 400 to 500 deaths a day instead of 100 to 150 at the moment. Israel’s approach is “very risky” and not a model for Germany. “I warn that we open too early,” stressed the minister. Next Wednesday, the federal and state governments want to discuss further action to contain the pandemic. Talks will revolve around March 19 as a crucial date. The legal basis for the current protective measures will expire on this day if the Bundestag does not extend them.
Hamburg’s CDU chairman Christoph Ploß asked Lauterbach to immediately propose an opening plan. There is no risk of “overburdening the health system,” Ploß told the “Bild” newspaper. Should Lauterbach nevertheless stick to the restrictions, he threatens to become “minister of fear,” said Ploß. Lauterbach apparently gave the medical journalist and doctor Christoph Specht a similar impression. “I think you have to jump to the side of Mr. Lauterbach and help him lose his fear,” said Specht in an interview with ntv.
Lauterbach defends itself with the RKI model
Specht sees an opportunity in the fact that people who have been vaccinated twice become infected with the omicron variant, as this leads to improved immunity to the virus and the disease can usually be expected to be mild. “These infection numbers that we are now seeing could be something like necessary vaccinations or boosters,” Specht continues. That’s why he believes there’s plenty of room for easing. Specht does not consider Lauterbach’s warning of an increase in the number of deaths to be expedient in the current situation: “I have the impression that politicians, namely Mr. Lauterbach, have gotten a bit wrong.” Ethics Council member Stephan Rixen also accused the Minister of Health of painting “threat scenarios out of the blue”.
Lauterbach rejected the criticism by referring to a model from the Robert Koch Institute that could be used to assume different incidences. “And these incidences then lead to the corresponding number of deaths per day,” explained Lauterbach. If you transfer the numbers from Israel to Germany, the numbers would be correspondingly high. “Sadly, that’s the case because we have so many older unvaccinated people,” said Lauterbach. He then reiterated his warning against easing too quickly, although the health system is not currently reaching its limits. “We continue to have increasing numbers of cases,” he emphasized.
Peter M. Kern, Head of the Clinic for Immunology at Klinikum Fulda, shares the conviction that caution is still required in the current situation. “General solutions, i.e. maintaining all measures everywhere or lifting them everywhere, are no longer correct in this phase of the pandemic,” said Kern in an interview with ntv. However, he could immediately imagine gradual easing. For example, protective measures in nursing homes could be maintained, while 2G in retail or in culture could be abolished. In addition, the mask requirement should remain in place.
Kern recommends continuing to monitor both the infection process and the situation in the intensive care units before making far-reaching decisions: “In the previous waves we learned that from the onset of symptoms to a serious illness and the following intensive care usually three to four weeks. With Omikron I would like to give it a little more time and look at five to six weeks.” On the one hand, it is a new variant, on the other hand, the level of immunity of the population has changed, since there are many vaccinated and recovered. For this reason, it could be that it takes longer for a serious illness to break out, “because the body can defend itself against the pathogen longer before it gives up and needs help”.