After the historic deficits caused by the health crisis, the return to equilibrium of the Scu must be planned over a medium-term horizon which it seems reasonable to set at 10 years, according to a report commissioned by Matignon and consulted Thursday by AFP .
Ten years to rise to the surface. Plunged by the Covid into the abyss (38.7 billion losses in 2020), Social Security is not about to get its head out of the water. The accounts may have recovered faster than expected (-25 billion in 2021 according to the government, instead of the -33 billion forecast), betting on the economic recovery alone would be a little credible gamble, says the High Council for the Financing of Social Protection ( HCFiPS) in a report submitted this week to the Prime Minister, Jean Castex.
This organization considers it reasonable to aim for a recovery over a 10-year horizon by activating several levers. Starting with the essential control of expenditure, especially in the field of health.
There is no question, however, of bringing out the budget plane: the report rather recommends finally pushing the lights on the preventionthe reorganization of the healthcare offerthe fight against fraud and the mutual insurance management fees.
In terms of pensions, the HCFiPS warns against a freezing of pensions that is difficult to envisage on the social level and suggests favoring a postponement of the legal retirement age, which is more profitable in the long term. But that will probably not be enough, and a possible increase in taxes or contributions should not be a taboo, even if room for maneuver is limited in a country with one of the highest mandatory tax rates in the world. Certain increases could however be justified to modify behaviors, for example on tobacco, alcohol or processed food.
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Conversely, the report does not consider it desirable to reduce resources by further cuts or exemptions – which should in theory be compensated by the state budget. A message that is unlikely to be heard in the middle of the presidential campaign, while declared candidates and ministers in office compete with proposals to lower the charges.
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