Sunday 21 November 2021
“We know what happened”
USA fear attack on Ukraine
Russia is said to have gathered more than 100,000 soldiers in eastern Ukraine. According to a media report, the USA fear another attack on the western part of the country in December. Kiev and Berlin, however, interpret the situation somewhat differently.
The West is extremely concerned about the Russian troop deployment on the Ukrainian border, but according to a media report there are differences in its assessment of Moscow’s intentions. While the US feared a “new attack by Russia on Ukraine like in 2014”, security circles in Berlin and Kiev are assuming that Russia will attempt to intimidate them, as reported by the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung” (FAS).
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated Washington’s fears on Saturday. His country is following the “unusual military activities of Russia on the border with Ukraine” with “real concern,” said Blinken. Some of the “rhetorical statements we hear from Russia and see in the online media” also caused concern.
Washington does not know the intentions of the Russian President Vladimir Putin, said the US Secretary of State. “But we know what happened in the past.” Russia had previously invoked “a sham provocation by Ukraine or another country” and used this as a pretext for the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.
According to the FAS, Washington fears an attack in December if the floors in Eastern Europe freeze and tanks stop sinking in the mud. In Berlin, too, Putin’s heightened rhetoric was heard when he spoke of “red lines” and an “escalation” due to US and NATO military maneuvers in the Black Sea last week.
According to the report, Berlin security circles assess the statements in such a way that Russia no longer wants to tolerate the usual bilateral exercises between the USA or Great Britain and Ukraine, as well as the delivery of US anti-tank weapons. Germany does not see an acute danger of war.
Tampering or Real Danger?
The Ukrainian leadership thinks similarly as the FAS writes: It refers to a statement by the first deputy secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Ruslan Demchenko, according to which the “danger of an invasion of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine” is “increased” at the moment but no statement can be made about “how high the level of military preparations of the Kremlin is”.
For example, compared to the spring, when Russia had already troubled Ukraine by deploying troops, the maneuvers in October and November were “lower in number and intensity,” the paper quotes Demchenko. In his opinion, the military leadership uses the method of a “hybrid war” in which the enemy is manipulated by the “threat of a military invasion”.
The NATO partners and Ukraine have been accusing Russia for days of stoking tensions by deploying large troops on the Ukrainian border and possibly even preparing an invasion of Ukraine.
As early as March, Russia gathered thousands of soldiers, heavy military equipment, naval ships and air force aircraft near the Ukrainian border and in the region of the annexed Crimean peninsula in a massive deployment of troops. After weeks, Moscow finally declared the alleged maneuver over and withdrew its soldiers.
According to information from Kiev, Russia has now again drawn 114,000 soldiers in eastern Ukraine. Around 32,000 troops are stationed on the annexed Crimean peninsula.