Professor at Sciences Po and member of the Bruegel and Peterson Institute think tanks, Jean Pisani-Ferry was one of the main architects of Emmanuel Macron’s program for the 2017 presidential election. Close to the Head of State, the former Commissioner General of France Strategy is sounding the alarm in the face of the environmental challenges that await France and their economic and social consequences. “The economic cost of the transition will only be accepted if the sacrifices are equitably distributed”he explains.
In your report, you draw up a very grim observation of adaptation to climate challenges, evoking the “decade of all difficulties”. Can we still be optimistic on the subject?
If we want to meet the target of a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, we will have to do in ten years what we have barely done in thirty years. This gives you an idea of the necessary acceleration! Initially, the climate transition will not create wealth: on the contrary, it is a negative economic shock. Beyond 2030, there are reasons for optimism: the falling cost of renewable energy shows that dependence on fossil fuels has long diverted us from a technical progress that was just waiting to be awakened from sleep. . There will be economic and welfare gains. But, in the meantime, we are facing a wall that we must climb. Let’s not hide the reality of the difficulties: it’s a real industrial revolution, and it’s not won. We also see it elsewhere, such as in Germany, with the tensions of the automotive industry in the face of the announced end of the heat engine in 2035.
“This five-year term will be ecological or it will not be”, launched Emmanuel Macron in Marseille a year ago, during the presidential campaign. Have we wasted time?
Between 2017 and 2022, yes. Emmanuel Macron’s first five-year term began with the idea that carbon taxation would “do the job”, but the government had to back down in the face of “yellow vests”. Then the citizens’ convention for the climate made practical proposals [mi-2020], but without evaluating them in relation to the objectives set. We have gone from “we will do everything through prices” to “we will do everything through practical measures”. Neither works.
Since 2022, work is being done, particularly at the level of the General Secretariat for Ecological Planning [rattaché à Matignon], but the political decisions have not yet been made. We are not on the trajectory of carbon neutrality in 2050. The government must decide on the distribution of actions over time, on the extent of support for households and on support for the transition in terms of the labor market and of skills: this requires planning over thirty years.
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